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The principles and methods behind EFSA's Guidance on Uncertainty Analysis in Scientific Assessment

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The principles and methods behind EFSA's Guidance on Uncertainty Analysis in Scientific Assessment. / Benford, Diane; Halldorsson, Thorhallur; Jeger, Michael John et al.
In: EFSA Journal, Vol. 16, No. 1, 05122, 01.2018.

Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review

Harvard

Benford, D, Halldorsson, T, Jeger, MJ, Knutsen, HK, More, S, Naegeli, H, Noteborn, H, Ockleford, C, Ricci, A, Rychen, G, Schlatter, JR, Silano, V, Solecki, R, Turck, D, Younes, M, Craig, P, Hart, A, Von Goetz, N, Koutsoumanis, K, Mortensen, A, Ossendorp, B, Germini, A, Martino, L, Merten, C, Mosbach-Schulz, O, Smith, A & Hardy, A 2018, 'The principles and methods behind EFSA's Guidance on Uncertainty Analysis in Scientific Assessment', EFSA Journal, vol. 16, no. 1, 05122. https://doi.org/10.2903/j.efsa.2018.5122

APA

Benford, D., Halldorsson, T., Jeger, M. J., Knutsen, H. K., More, S., Naegeli, H., Noteborn, H., Ockleford, C., Ricci, A., Rychen, G., Schlatter, J. R., Silano, V., Solecki, R., Turck, D., Younes, M., Craig, P., Hart, A., Von Goetz, N., Koutsoumanis, K., ... Hardy, A. (2018). The principles and methods behind EFSA's Guidance on Uncertainty Analysis in Scientific Assessment. EFSA Journal, 16(1), Article 05122. https://doi.org/10.2903/j.efsa.2018.5122

Vancouver

Benford D, Halldorsson T, Jeger MJ, Knutsen HK, More S, Naegeli H et al. The principles and methods behind EFSA's Guidance on Uncertainty Analysis in Scientific Assessment. EFSA Journal. 2018 Jan;16(1):05122. Epub 2018 Jan 24. doi: 10.2903/j.efsa.2018.5122

Author

Benford, Diane ; Halldorsson, Thorhallur ; Jeger, Michael John et al. / The principles and methods behind EFSA's Guidance on Uncertainty Analysis in Scientific Assessment. In: EFSA Journal. 2018 ; Vol. 16, No. 1.

Bibtex

@article{d2937810dbc745f191468d157b650746,
title = "The principles and methods behind EFSA's Guidance on Uncertainty Analysis in Scientific Assessment",
abstract = "Abstract To meet the general requirement for transparency in EFSA's work, all its scientific assessments must consider uncertainty. Assessments must say clearly and unambiguously what sources of uncertainty have been identified and what is their impact on the assessment conclusion. This applies to all EFSA's areas, all types of scientific assessment and all types of uncertainty affecting assessment. This current Opinion describes the principles and methods supporting a concise Guidance Document on Uncertainty in EFSA's Scientific Assessment, published separately. These documents do not prescribe specific methods for uncertainty analysis but rather provide a flexible framework within which different methods may be selected, according to the needs of each assessment. Assessors should systematically identify sources of uncertainty, checking each part of their assessment to minimise the risk of overlooking important uncertainties. Uncertainty may be expressed qualitatively or quantitatively. It is neither necessary nor possible to quantify separately every source of uncertainty affecting an assessment. However, assessors should express in quantitative terms the combined effect of as many as possible of identified sources of uncertainty. The guidance describes practical approaches. Uncertainty analysis should be conducted in a flexible, iterative manner, starting at a level appropriate to the assessment and refining the analysis as far as is needed or possible within the time available. The methods and results of the uncertainty analysis should be reported fully and transparently. Every EFSA Panel and Unit applied the draft Guidance to at least one assessment in their work area during a trial period of one year. Experience gained in this period resulted in improved guidance. The Scientific Committee considers that uncertainty analysis will be unconditional for EFSA Panels and staff and must be embedded into scientific assessment in all areas of EFSA's work.",
keywords = "uncertainty analysis, principles, scientific assessment, guidance",
author = "Diane Benford and Thorhallur Halldorsson and Jeger, {Michael John} and Knutsen, {Helle Katrine} and Simon More and Hanspeter Naegeli and Hubert Noteborn and Colin Ockleford and Antonia Ricci and Guido Rychen and Schlatter, {Josef R} and Vittorio Silano and Roland Solecki and Dominique Turck and Maged Younes and Peter Craig and Andrew Hart and {Von Goetz}, Natalie and Kostas Koutsoumanis and Alicja Mortensen and Bernadette Ossendorp and Andrea Germini and Laura Martino and Caroline Merten and Olaf Mosbach-Schulz and Anthony Smith and Anthony Hardy",
note = "doi: 10.2903/j.efsa.2018.5122",
year = "2018",
month = jan,
doi = "10.2903/j.efsa.2018.5122",
language = "English",
volume = "16",
journal = "EFSA Journal",
issn = "1831-4732",
publisher = "John Wiley & Sons, Ltd",
number = "1",

}

RIS

TY - JOUR

T1 - The principles and methods behind EFSA's Guidance on Uncertainty Analysis in Scientific Assessment

AU - Benford, Diane

AU - Halldorsson, Thorhallur

AU - Jeger, Michael John

AU - Knutsen, Helle Katrine

AU - More, Simon

AU - Naegeli, Hanspeter

AU - Noteborn, Hubert

AU - Ockleford, Colin

AU - Ricci, Antonia

AU - Rychen, Guido

AU - Schlatter, Josef R

AU - Silano, Vittorio

AU - Solecki, Roland

AU - Turck, Dominique

AU - Younes, Maged

AU - Craig, Peter

AU - Hart, Andrew

AU - Von Goetz, Natalie

AU - Koutsoumanis, Kostas

AU - Mortensen, Alicja

AU - Ossendorp, Bernadette

AU - Germini, Andrea

AU - Martino, Laura

AU - Merten, Caroline

AU - Mosbach-Schulz, Olaf

AU - Smith, Anthony

AU - Hardy, Anthony

N1 - doi: 10.2903/j.efsa.2018.5122

PY - 2018/1

Y1 - 2018/1

N2 - Abstract To meet the general requirement for transparency in EFSA's work, all its scientific assessments must consider uncertainty. Assessments must say clearly and unambiguously what sources of uncertainty have been identified and what is their impact on the assessment conclusion. This applies to all EFSA's areas, all types of scientific assessment and all types of uncertainty affecting assessment. This current Opinion describes the principles and methods supporting a concise Guidance Document on Uncertainty in EFSA's Scientific Assessment, published separately. These documents do not prescribe specific methods for uncertainty analysis but rather provide a flexible framework within which different methods may be selected, according to the needs of each assessment. Assessors should systematically identify sources of uncertainty, checking each part of their assessment to minimise the risk of overlooking important uncertainties. Uncertainty may be expressed qualitatively or quantitatively. It is neither necessary nor possible to quantify separately every source of uncertainty affecting an assessment. However, assessors should express in quantitative terms the combined effect of as many as possible of identified sources of uncertainty. The guidance describes practical approaches. Uncertainty analysis should be conducted in a flexible, iterative manner, starting at a level appropriate to the assessment and refining the analysis as far as is needed or possible within the time available. The methods and results of the uncertainty analysis should be reported fully and transparently. Every EFSA Panel and Unit applied the draft Guidance to at least one assessment in their work area during a trial period of one year. Experience gained in this period resulted in improved guidance. The Scientific Committee considers that uncertainty analysis will be unconditional for EFSA Panels and staff and must be embedded into scientific assessment in all areas of EFSA's work.

AB - Abstract To meet the general requirement for transparency in EFSA's work, all its scientific assessments must consider uncertainty. Assessments must say clearly and unambiguously what sources of uncertainty have been identified and what is their impact on the assessment conclusion. This applies to all EFSA's areas, all types of scientific assessment and all types of uncertainty affecting assessment. This current Opinion describes the principles and methods supporting a concise Guidance Document on Uncertainty in EFSA's Scientific Assessment, published separately. These documents do not prescribe specific methods for uncertainty analysis but rather provide a flexible framework within which different methods may be selected, according to the needs of each assessment. Assessors should systematically identify sources of uncertainty, checking each part of their assessment to minimise the risk of overlooking important uncertainties. Uncertainty may be expressed qualitatively or quantitatively. It is neither necessary nor possible to quantify separately every source of uncertainty affecting an assessment. However, assessors should express in quantitative terms the combined effect of as many as possible of identified sources of uncertainty. The guidance describes practical approaches. Uncertainty analysis should be conducted in a flexible, iterative manner, starting at a level appropriate to the assessment and refining the analysis as far as is needed or possible within the time available. The methods and results of the uncertainty analysis should be reported fully and transparently. Every EFSA Panel and Unit applied the draft Guidance to at least one assessment in their work area during a trial period of one year. Experience gained in this period resulted in improved guidance. The Scientific Committee considers that uncertainty analysis will be unconditional for EFSA Panels and staff and must be embedded into scientific assessment in all areas of EFSA's work.

KW - uncertainty analysis

KW - principles

KW - scientific assessment

KW - guidance

U2 - 10.2903/j.efsa.2018.5122

DO - 10.2903/j.efsa.2018.5122

M3 - Journal article

VL - 16

JO - EFSA Journal

JF - EFSA Journal

SN - 1831-4732

IS - 1

M1 - 05122

ER -