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The social cost of carbon dioxide under climate-economy feedbacks and temperature variability

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The social cost of carbon dioxide under climate-economy feedbacks and temperature variability. / Kikstra, Jarmo S; Waidelich, Paul; Rising, James et al.
In: Environmental Research Letters, Vol. 16, No. 9, 094037, 01.09.2021.

Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review

Harvard

Kikstra, JS, Waidelich, P, Rising, J, Yumashev, D, Hope, C & Brierley, CM 2021, 'The social cost of carbon dioxide under climate-economy feedbacks and temperature variability', Environmental Research Letters, vol. 16, no. 9, 094037. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac1d0b

APA

Kikstra, J. S., Waidelich, P., Rising, J., Yumashev, D., Hope, C., & Brierley, C. M. (2021). The social cost of carbon dioxide under climate-economy feedbacks and temperature variability. Environmental Research Letters, 16(9), Article 094037. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac1d0b

Vancouver

Kikstra JS, Waidelich P, Rising J, Yumashev D, Hope C, Brierley CM. The social cost of carbon dioxide under climate-economy feedbacks and temperature variability. Environmental Research Letters. 2021 Sept 1;16(9):094037. doi: 10.1088/1748-9326/ac1d0b

Author

Kikstra, Jarmo S ; Waidelich, Paul ; Rising, James et al. / The social cost of carbon dioxide under climate-economy feedbacks and temperature variability. In: Environmental Research Letters. 2021 ; Vol. 16, No. 9.

Bibtex

@article{0dd65bc0d05343e0a3fb6f7dc0c414e6,
title = "The social cost of carbon dioxide under climate-economy feedbacks and temperature variability",
abstract = "Abstract: A key statistic describing climate change impacts is the {\textquoteleft}social cost of carbon dioxide{\textquoteright} (SCCO2), the projected cost to society of releasing an additional tonne of CO2. Cost-benefit integrated assessment models that estimate the SCCO2 lack robust representations of climate feedbacks, economy feedbacks, and climate extremes. We compare the PAGE-ICE model with the decade older PAGE09 and find that PAGE-ICE yields SCCO2 values about two times higher, because of its climate and economic updates. Climate feedbacks only account for a relatively minor increase compared to other updates. Extending PAGE-ICE with economy feedbacks demonstrates a manifold increase in the SCCO2 resulting from an empirically derived estimate of partially persistent economic damages. Both the economy feedbacks and other increases since PAGE09 are almost entirely due to higher damages in the Global South. Including an estimate of interannual temperature variability increases the width of the SCCO2 distribution, with particularly strong effects in the tails and a slight increase in the mean SCCO2. Our results highlight the large impacts of climate change if future adaptation does not exceed historical trends. Robust quantification of climate-economy feedbacks and climate extremes are demonstrated to be essential for estimating the SCCO2 and its uncertainty.",
keywords = "Letter, climate change, cost–benefit analysis, temperature variability, damage persistence, growth effects, PAGE, environmental economics",
author = "Kikstra, {Jarmo S} and Paul Waidelich and James Rising and Dmitry Yumashev and Chris Hope and Brierley, {Chris M}",
year = "2021",
month = sep,
day = "1",
doi = "10.1088/1748-9326/ac1d0b",
language = "English",
volume = "16",
journal = "Environmental Research Letters",
issn = "1748-9326",
publisher = "IOP Publishing Ltd",
number = "9",

}

RIS

TY - JOUR

T1 - The social cost of carbon dioxide under climate-economy feedbacks and temperature variability

AU - Kikstra, Jarmo S

AU - Waidelich, Paul

AU - Rising, James

AU - Yumashev, Dmitry

AU - Hope, Chris

AU - Brierley, Chris M

PY - 2021/9/1

Y1 - 2021/9/1

N2 - Abstract: A key statistic describing climate change impacts is the ‘social cost of carbon dioxide’ (SCCO2), the projected cost to society of releasing an additional tonne of CO2. Cost-benefit integrated assessment models that estimate the SCCO2 lack robust representations of climate feedbacks, economy feedbacks, and climate extremes. We compare the PAGE-ICE model with the decade older PAGE09 and find that PAGE-ICE yields SCCO2 values about two times higher, because of its climate and economic updates. Climate feedbacks only account for a relatively minor increase compared to other updates. Extending PAGE-ICE with economy feedbacks demonstrates a manifold increase in the SCCO2 resulting from an empirically derived estimate of partially persistent economic damages. Both the economy feedbacks and other increases since PAGE09 are almost entirely due to higher damages in the Global South. Including an estimate of interannual temperature variability increases the width of the SCCO2 distribution, with particularly strong effects in the tails and a slight increase in the mean SCCO2. Our results highlight the large impacts of climate change if future adaptation does not exceed historical trends. Robust quantification of climate-economy feedbacks and climate extremes are demonstrated to be essential for estimating the SCCO2 and its uncertainty.

AB - Abstract: A key statistic describing climate change impacts is the ‘social cost of carbon dioxide’ (SCCO2), the projected cost to society of releasing an additional tonne of CO2. Cost-benefit integrated assessment models that estimate the SCCO2 lack robust representations of climate feedbacks, economy feedbacks, and climate extremes. We compare the PAGE-ICE model with the decade older PAGE09 and find that PAGE-ICE yields SCCO2 values about two times higher, because of its climate and economic updates. Climate feedbacks only account for a relatively minor increase compared to other updates. Extending PAGE-ICE with economy feedbacks demonstrates a manifold increase in the SCCO2 resulting from an empirically derived estimate of partially persistent economic damages. Both the economy feedbacks and other increases since PAGE09 are almost entirely due to higher damages in the Global South. Including an estimate of interannual temperature variability increases the width of the SCCO2 distribution, with particularly strong effects in the tails and a slight increase in the mean SCCO2. Our results highlight the large impacts of climate change if future adaptation does not exceed historical trends. Robust quantification of climate-economy feedbacks and climate extremes are demonstrated to be essential for estimating the SCCO2 and its uncertainty.

KW - Letter

KW - climate change

KW - cost–benefit analysis

KW - temperature variability

KW - damage persistence

KW - growth effects

KW - PAGE

KW - environmental economics

U2 - 10.1088/1748-9326/ac1d0b

DO - 10.1088/1748-9326/ac1d0b

M3 - Journal article

VL - 16

JO - Environmental Research Letters

JF - Environmental Research Letters

SN - 1748-9326

IS - 9

M1 - 094037

ER -