Home > Research > Publications & Outputs > The state of macroeconomic forecasting

Electronic data

View graph of relations

The state of macroeconomic forecasting

Research output: Working paper

Published

Standard

The state of macroeconomic forecasting. / Stekler, H; Fildes, R A.

Lancaster University : The Department of Economics, 1999. (Economics Working Paper Series).

Research output: Working paper

Harvard

Stekler, H & Fildes, RA 1999 'The state of macroeconomic forecasting' Economics Working Paper Series, The Department of Economics, Lancaster University.

APA

Stekler, H., & Fildes, R. A. (1999). The state of macroeconomic forecasting. (Economics Working Paper Series). The Department of Economics.

Vancouver

Stekler H, Fildes RA. The state of macroeconomic forecasting. Lancaster University: The Department of Economics. 1999. (Economics Working Paper Series).

Author

Stekler, H ; Fildes, R A. / The state of macroeconomic forecasting. Lancaster University : The Department of Economics, 1999. (Economics Working Paper Series).

Bibtex

@techreport{503fd39826ed4e8e932b3548c1380fd1,
title = "The state of macroeconomic forecasting",
abstract = "Macroeconomic forecasts are used extensively in industry and government The historical accuracy of US and UK forecasts are examined in the light of different approaches to evaluating macro forecasts. Issues discussed include the comparative accuracy of macroeconometric models compared to their time series alternatives, whether the forecasting record has improved over time, the rationality of macroeconomic forecasts and how a forecasting service should be chosen. The role of judgement in producing the forecasts is also considered where the evidence unequivocally favors such interventions. Finally the use of macroeconomic forecasts and their effectiveness is discussed. The conclusion drawn is that researchers have paid too little attention to the issue of improving the forecasting accuracy record. Areas where improvements would be particularly valuable are highlighted.",
keywords = "econometric models, macroeconomic forecasting, rationality, forecast evaluation, structural breaks, cliometrics, industry structure",
author = "H Stekler and Fildes, {R A}",
year = "1999",
language = "English",
series = "Economics Working Paper Series",
publisher = "The Department of Economics",
type = "WorkingPaper",
institution = "The Department of Economics",

}

RIS

TY - UNPB

T1 - The state of macroeconomic forecasting

AU - Stekler, H

AU - Fildes, R A

PY - 1999

Y1 - 1999

N2 - Macroeconomic forecasts are used extensively in industry and government The historical accuracy of US and UK forecasts are examined in the light of different approaches to evaluating macro forecasts. Issues discussed include the comparative accuracy of macroeconometric models compared to their time series alternatives, whether the forecasting record has improved over time, the rationality of macroeconomic forecasts and how a forecasting service should be chosen. The role of judgement in producing the forecasts is also considered where the evidence unequivocally favors such interventions. Finally the use of macroeconomic forecasts and their effectiveness is discussed. The conclusion drawn is that researchers have paid too little attention to the issue of improving the forecasting accuracy record. Areas where improvements would be particularly valuable are highlighted.

AB - Macroeconomic forecasts are used extensively in industry and government The historical accuracy of US and UK forecasts are examined in the light of different approaches to evaluating macro forecasts. Issues discussed include the comparative accuracy of macroeconometric models compared to their time series alternatives, whether the forecasting record has improved over time, the rationality of macroeconomic forecasts and how a forecasting service should be chosen. The role of judgement in producing the forecasts is also considered where the evidence unequivocally favors such interventions. Finally the use of macroeconomic forecasts and their effectiveness is discussed. The conclusion drawn is that researchers have paid too little attention to the issue of improving the forecasting accuracy record. Areas where improvements would be particularly valuable are highlighted.

KW - econometric models

KW - macroeconomic forecasting

KW - rationality

KW - forecast evaluation

KW - structural breaks

KW - cliometrics

KW - industry structure

M3 - Working paper

T3 - Economics Working Paper Series

BT - The state of macroeconomic forecasting

PB - The Department of Economics

CY - Lancaster University

ER -