Final published version
Licence: CC BY: Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License
Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review
Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review
}
TY - JOUR
T1 - Thermal biology of mosquito‐borne disease
AU - Mordecai, Erin A.
AU - Caldwell, Jamie M.
AU - Grossman, Marissa K.
AU - Lippi, Catherine A.
AU - Johnson, Leah R.
AU - Neira, Marco
AU - Rohr, Jason R.
AU - Ryan, Sadie J.
AU - Savage, Van
AU - Shocket, Marta S.
AU - Sippy, Rachel
AU - Ibarra, Anna M. Stewart
AU - Thomas, Matthew B.
AU - Villena, Oswaldo
A2 - Byers, James (Jeb)
PY - 2019/10/31
Y1 - 2019/10/31
N2 - Mosquito-borne diseases cause a major burden of disease worldwide. The vital rates of these ectothermic vectors and parasites respond strongly and nonlinearly to temperature and therefore to climate change. Here, we review how trait-based approaches can synthesise and mechanistically predict the temperature dependence of transmission across vectors, pathogens, and environments.We present 11 pathogens transmitted by 15 different mosquito species – including globally important diseases like malaria, dengue, and Zika – synthesised from previously published studies. Transmission varied strongly and unimodally with temperature, peaking at 23–29C and declining to zero below 9–23C and above 32–38C. Different traits restricted transmission at low versus high temperatures, and temperature effects on transmission varied by both mosquito and parasite species. Temperate pathogens exhibit broader thermal ranges and cooler thermal minima and optima than tropical pathogens. Among tropical pathogens, malaria and Ross River virus had lower thermal optima (25–26C) while dengue and Zika viruses had the highest (29C) thermal optima. We expect warming to increase transmission below thermal optima but decrease transmission above optima. Key directions for future work include linking mechanistic models to field transmission, combining temperature effects with control measures, incorporating trait variation and temperature variation, and investigating climate adaptation and migration.
AB - Mosquito-borne diseases cause a major burden of disease worldwide. The vital rates of these ectothermic vectors and parasites respond strongly and nonlinearly to temperature and therefore to climate change. Here, we review how trait-based approaches can synthesise and mechanistically predict the temperature dependence of transmission across vectors, pathogens, and environments.We present 11 pathogens transmitted by 15 different mosquito species – including globally important diseases like malaria, dengue, and Zika – synthesised from previously published studies. Transmission varied strongly and unimodally with temperature, peaking at 23–29C and declining to zero below 9–23C and above 32–38C. Different traits restricted transmission at low versus high temperatures, and temperature effects on transmission varied by both mosquito and parasite species. Temperate pathogens exhibit broader thermal ranges and cooler thermal minima and optima than tropical pathogens. Among tropical pathogens, malaria and Ross River virus had lower thermal optima (25–26C) while dengue and Zika viruses had the highest (29C) thermal optima. We expect warming to increase transmission below thermal optima but decrease transmission above optima. Key directions for future work include linking mechanistic models to field transmission, combining temperature effects with control measures, incorporating trait variation and temperature variation, and investigating climate adaptation and migration.
U2 - 10.1111/ele.13335
DO - 10.1111/ele.13335
M3 - Journal article
VL - 22
SP - 1690
EP - 1708
JO - Ecology Letters
JF - Ecology Letters
SN - 1461-023X
IS - 10
ER -