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Truncation of thermal tolerance niches among Australian plants

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Truncation of thermal tolerance niches among Australian plants. / Bush, Alex; Catullo, Renee; Mokany, Karel et al.
In: Global Ecology and Biogeography, Vol. 27, No. 1, 01.01.2018, p. 22-31.

Research output: Contribution to Journal/MagazineJournal articlepeer-review

Harvard

Bush, A, Catullo, R, Mokany, K, Thornhill, AH, Miller, JT & Ferrier, S 2018, 'Truncation of thermal tolerance niches among Australian plants', Global Ecology and Biogeography, vol. 27, no. 1, pp. 22-31. https://doi.org/10.1111/geb.12637

APA

Bush, A., Catullo, R., Mokany, K., Thornhill, A. H., Miller, J. T., & Ferrier, S. (2018). Truncation of thermal tolerance niches among Australian plants. Global Ecology and Biogeography, 27(1), 22-31. https://doi.org/10.1111/geb.12637

Vancouver

Bush A, Catullo R, Mokany K, Thornhill AH, Miller JT, Ferrier S. Truncation of thermal tolerance niches among Australian plants. Global Ecology and Biogeography. 2018 Jan 1;27(1):22-31. Epub 2017 Oct 13. doi: 10.1111/geb.12637

Author

Bush, Alex ; Catullo, Renee ; Mokany, Karel et al. / Truncation of thermal tolerance niches among Australian plants. In: Global Ecology and Biogeography. 2018 ; Vol. 27, No. 1. pp. 22-31.

Bibtex

@article{a436e7a3bfbf4046bc4ac9d5e7b7b529,
title = "Truncation of thermal tolerance niches among Australian plants",
abstract = "AimDespite recognition that realized distributions inherently underestimate species' physiological tolerances, we are yet to identify the extent of these differences within diverse taxonomic groups. The degree to which species could tolerate environmental conditions outside their observed distributions may have a significant impact on the perceived extinction risk in ecological models. More information on this potential error is required to improve our confidence in management strategies.LocationAustralia.Time Period1983–2012.Major Taxa StudiedPlants.MethodsTo quantify the scale and spatial patterns of this disparity, we estimated the existing tolerance to thermal extremes of 7,124 Australian plants, more than one‐third of the native continental flora, using data from cultivated records at 128 botanical gardens and nurseries. Hierarchical Bayesian beta regression was used to assess whether factors such as realized niches, traits or phylogeny could predict the incidence or magnitude of niche truncation (underestimation of thermal tolerances), while controlling for sources of collection bias.ResultsApproximately half of the cultivated species analysed could tolerate temperature extremes beyond those experienced in their native range. Niche truncation was predictable from the breadth and extremes of their realized niches and by traits such as plant growth form. Phylogenetic relationships with niche truncation were weak and appeared more suited to predicting thermal tolerances directly.Main conclusionsThis study highlights a widespread disparity between realized and potential thermal limits that may have significant implications for species' capacity to persist in situ with a changing climate. Identifying whether thermal niche truncation is the result of biotic interactions, dispersal constraints or other environmental factors could provide significant insight into community assembly at macroecological scales. Estimating niche truncation may help to explain why certain ecological communities are more resilient to change and may potentially improve the reliability of model projections under climate change.",
keywords = "adaptive capacity, biodiversity modelling, climate change, niche truncation, potential niche, realized niche, tolerance niche",
author = "Alex Bush and Renee Catullo and Karel Mokany and Thornhill, {Andrew H.} and Miller, {Joseph T.} and Simon Ferrier",
year = "2018",
month = jan,
day = "1",
doi = "10.1111/geb.12637",
language = "English",
volume = "27",
pages = "22--31",
journal = "Global Ecology and Biogeography",
issn = "1466-822X",
publisher = "Blackwell Publishing Ltd",
number = "1",

}

RIS

TY - JOUR

T1 - Truncation of thermal tolerance niches among Australian plants

AU - Bush, Alex

AU - Catullo, Renee

AU - Mokany, Karel

AU - Thornhill, Andrew H.

AU - Miller, Joseph T.

AU - Ferrier, Simon

PY - 2018/1/1

Y1 - 2018/1/1

N2 - AimDespite recognition that realized distributions inherently underestimate species' physiological tolerances, we are yet to identify the extent of these differences within diverse taxonomic groups. The degree to which species could tolerate environmental conditions outside their observed distributions may have a significant impact on the perceived extinction risk in ecological models. More information on this potential error is required to improve our confidence in management strategies.LocationAustralia.Time Period1983–2012.Major Taxa StudiedPlants.MethodsTo quantify the scale and spatial patterns of this disparity, we estimated the existing tolerance to thermal extremes of 7,124 Australian plants, more than one‐third of the native continental flora, using data from cultivated records at 128 botanical gardens and nurseries. Hierarchical Bayesian beta regression was used to assess whether factors such as realized niches, traits or phylogeny could predict the incidence or magnitude of niche truncation (underestimation of thermal tolerances), while controlling for sources of collection bias.ResultsApproximately half of the cultivated species analysed could tolerate temperature extremes beyond those experienced in their native range. Niche truncation was predictable from the breadth and extremes of their realized niches and by traits such as plant growth form. Phylogenetic relationships with niche truncation were weak and appeared more suited to predicting thermal tolerances directly.Main conclusionsThis study highlights a widespread disparity between realized and potential thermal limits that may have significant implications for species' capacity to persist in situ with a changing climate. Identifying whether thermal niche truncation is the result of biotic interactions, dispersal constraints or other environmental factors could provide significant insight into community assembly at macroecological scales. Estimating niche truncation may help to explain why certain ecological communities are more resilient to change and may potentially improve the reliability of model projections under climate change.

AB - AimDespite recognition that realized distributions inherently underestimate species' physiological tolerances, we are yet to identify the extent of these differences within diverse taxonomic groups. The degree to which species could tolerate environmental conditions outside their observed distributions may have a significant impact on the perceived extinction risk in ecological models. More information on this potential error is required to improve our confidence in management strategies.LocationAustralia.Time Period1983–2012.Major Taxa StudiedPlants.MethodsTo quantify the scale and spatial patterns of this disparity, we estimated the existing tolerance to thermal extremes of 7,124 Australian plants, more than one‐third of the native continental flora, using data from cultivated records at 128 botanical gardens and nurseries. Hierarchical Bayesian beta regression was used to assess whether factors such as realized niches, traits or phylogeny could predict the incidence or magnitude of niche truncation (underestimation of thermal tolerances), while controlling for sources of collection bias.ResultsApproximately half of the cultivated species analysed could tolerate temperature extremes beyond those experienced in their native range. Niche truncation was predictable from the breadth and extremes of their realized niches and by traits such as plant growth form. Phylogenetic relationships with niche truncation were weak and appeared more suited to predicting thermal tolerances directly.Main conclusionsThis study highlights a widespread disparity between realized and potential thermal limits that may have significant implications for species' capacity to persist in situ with a changing climate. Identifying whether thermal niche truncation is the result of biotic interactions, dispersal constraints or other environmental factors could provide significant insight into community assembly at macroecological scales. Estimating niche truncation may help to explain why certain ecological communities are more resilient to change and may potentially improve the reliability of model projections under climate change.

KW - adaptive capacity

KW - biodiversity modelling

KW - climate change

KW - niche truncation

KW - potential niche

KW - realized niche

KW - tolerance niche

U2 - 10.1111/geb.12637

DO - 10.1111/geb.12637

M3 - Journal article

VL - 27

SP - 22

EP - 31

JO - Global Ecology and Biogeography

JF - Global Ecology and Biogeography

SN - 1466-822X

IS - 1

ER -