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Uncertainty and transparency: augmenting modelling and prediction for crisis response

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Emergencies are characterised by uncertainty. This motivates the design of
information systems that model and predict complex natural, material or human
processes to support understanding and reduce uncertainty through prediction.
The correspondence between system models and reality, however, is also
governed by uncertainties, and designers have developed methods to render ‘the
world’ transparent in ways that can inform, fine-tune and validate models.
Additionally, people experience uncertainties in their use of simulation and
prediction systems. This is a major obstacle to effective utilisation. We discuss
ethically and socially motivated demands for transparency.