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Uncertainty in East Antarctic firn thickness constrained using a model ensemble approach

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Uncertainty in East Antarctic firn thickness constrained using a model ensemble approach. / Verjans, Vincent; Leeson, Amber; McMillan, Mal et al.
In: Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 48, No. 7, e2020GL092060, 16.04.2021.

Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review

Harvard

Verjans, V, Leeson, A, McMillan, M, Stevens, M, van Wessem, JM, van de Berg, WJ, van den Broeke, M, Kittel, C, Amory, C, Fettweis, X, Hansen, N, Boberg, F & Mottram, R 2021, 'Uncertainty in East Antarctic firn thickness constrained using a model ensemble approach', Geophysical Research Letters, vol. 48, no. 7, e2020GL092060. https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL092060

APA

Verjans, V., Leeson, A., McMillan, M., Stevens, M., van Wessem, J. M., van de Berg, W. J., van den Broeke, M., Kittel, C., Amory, C., Fettweis, X., Hansen, N., Boberg, F., & Mottram, R. (2021). Uncertainty in East Antarctic firn thickness constrained using a model ensemble approach. Geophysical Research Letters, 48(7), Article e2020GL092060. https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL092060

Vancouver

Verjans V, Leeson A, McMillan M, Stevens M, van Wessem JM, van de Berg WJ et al. Uncertainty in East Antarctic firn thickness constrained using a model ensemble approach. Geophysical Research Letters. 2021 Apr 16;48(7):e2020GL092060. Epub 2021 Mar 15. doi: 10.1029/2020GL092060

Author

Verjans, Vincent ; Leeson, Amber ; McMillan, Mal et al. / Uncertainty in East Antarctic firn thickness constrained using a model ensemble approach. In: Geophysical Research Letters. 2021 ; Vol. 48, No. 7.

Bibtex

@article{d360a7d1d94f4e2fa197e1da431d6570,
title = "Uncertainty in East Antarctic firn thickness constrained using a model ensemble approach",
abstract = "Mass balance assessments of the East Antarctic ice sheet (EAIS) are highly sensitive to changes in firn thickness, causing substantial disagreement in estimates of its contribution to sea‐level. To better constrain the uncertainty in recent firn thickness changes, we develop an ensemble of 54 model scenarios of firn evolution between 1992‐2017. Using statistical emulation of firn‐densification models, we quantify the impact of firn compaction formulation, differing climatic forcing, and surface snow density on firn thickness evolution. At basin scales, the ensemble uncertainty in firn thickness change ranges between 0.2–1.0 cm yr‐1 (15–300% relative uncertainty), with the choice of climate forcing having the largest influence on the spread. Our results show the regions of the ice sheet where unexplained discrepancies exist between observed elevation changes and an extensive set of modelled firn thickness changes estimates, marking an important step towards more accurately constraining ice sheet mass balance.",
keywords = "Firn, Model‐Ensemble, East Antarctic ice sheet",
author = "Vincent Verjans and Amber Leeson and Mal McMillan and Max Stevens and {van Wessem}, {Jan Melchior} and {van de Berg}, {Willem Jan} and {van den Broeke}, Michiel and Christoph Kittel and Charles Amory and Xavier Fettweis and Nicolaj Hansen and Fredrik Boberg and Ruth Mottram",
year = "2021",
month = apr,
day = "16",
doi = "10.1029/2020GL092060",
language = "English",
volume = "48",
journal = "Geophysical Research Letters",
issn = "0094-8276",
publisher = "John Wiley & Sons, Ltd",
number = "7",

}

RIS

TY - JOUR

T1 - Uncertainty in East Antarctic firn thickness constrained using a model ensemble approach

AU - Verjans, Vincent

AU - Leeson, Amber

AU - McMillan, Mal

AU - Stevens, Max

AU - van Wessem, Jan Melchior

AU - van de Berg, Willem Jan

AU - van den Broeke, Michiel

AU - Kittel, Christoph

AU - Amory, Charles

AU - Fettweis, Xavier

AU - Hansen, Nicolaj

AU - Boberg, Fredrik

AU - Mottram, Ruth

PY - 2021/4/16

Y1 - 2021/4/16

N2 - Mass balance assessments of the East Antarctic ice sheet (EAIS) are highly sensitive to changes in firn thickness, causing substantial disagreement in estimates of its contribution to sea‐level. To better constrain the uncertainty in recent firn thickness changes, we develop an ensemble of 54 model scenarios of firn evolution between 1992‐2017. Using statistical emulation of firn‐densification models, we quantify the impact of firn compaction formulation, differing climatic forcing, and surface snow density on firn thickness evolution. At basin scales, the ensemble uncertainty in firn thickness change ranges between 0.2–1.0 cm yr‐1 (15–300% relative uncertainty), with the choice of climate forcing having the largest influence on the spread. Our results show the regions of the ice sheet where unexplained discrepancies exist between observed elevation changes and an extensive set of modelled firn thickness changes estimates, marking an important step towards more accurately constraining ice sheet mass balance.

AB - Mass balance assessments of the East Antarctic ice sheet (EAIS) are highly sensitive to changes in firn thickness, causing substantial disagreement in estimates of its contribution to sea‐level. To better constrain the uncertainty in recent firn thickness changes, we develop an ensemble of 54 model scenarios of firn evolution between 1992‐2017. Using statistical emulation of firn‐densification models, we quantify the impact of firn compaction formulation, differing climatic forcing, and surface snow density on firn thickness evolution. At basin scales, the ensemble uncertainty in firn thickness change ranges between 0.2–1.0 cm yr‐1 (15–300% relative uncertainty), with the choice of climate forcing having the largest influence on the spread. Our results show the regions of the ice sheet where unexplained discrepancies exist between observed elevation changes and an extensive set of modelled firn thickness changes estimates, marking an important step towards more accurately constraining ice sheet mass balance.

KW - Firn

KW - Model‐Ensemble

KW - East Antarctic ice sheet

U2 - 10.1029/2020GL092060

DO - 10.1029/2020GL092060

M3 - Journal article

VL - 48

JO - Geophysical Research Letters

JF - Geophysical Research Letters

SN - 0094-8276

IS - 7

M1 - e2020GL092060

ER -