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Uniqueness of place and non-uniqueness of models in assessing predictive uncertainty

Research output: Contribution in Book/Report/Proceedings - With ISBN/ISSNConference contribution/Paperpeer-review

Published
Publication date1/01/2000
Host publicationComputational methods in water resources - Volume 2 - Computational methods,surface water systems and hydrology
EditorsL.R. Bentley, J.F. Sykes, C.A. Brebbia, W.G. Gray, G.F. Pinder, L.R. Bentley, J.F. Sykes, C.A. Brebbia, W.G. Gray, G.F. Pinder
PublisherA.A.Balkema
Pages1085-1091
Number of pages7
ISBN (print)9058091252
<mark>Original language</mark>English
EventComputational Methods in Water Resources - Calgary, Canada
Duration: 25/06/200029/06/2000

Conference

ConferenceComputational Methods in Water Resources
Country/TerritoryCanada
CityCalgary
Period25/06/0029/06/00

Conference

ConferenceComputational Methods in Water Resources
Country/TerritoryCanada
CityCalgary
Period25/06/0029/06/00

Abstract

This paper addresses the problem of why hydrological models often do not give very good results in applications to specific locations with unique characteristics. The implications of uniqueness of place are considered and an approach based on an uncertain or fuzzy mapping of the landscape into a model space is suggested as a way of using field data to condition the predictive uncertainty of models. One consequence of such an approach is the use of hypothesis testing as a way of rejecting some model structures. This allows the semblance of a scientific approach to be restored to modelling activities.