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Untangling the changing impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions and vaccination on European COVID-19 trajectories

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Untangling the changing impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions and vaccination on European COVID-19 trajectories. / Ge, Yong; Zhang, Wen-Bin; Wu, Xilin et al.
In: Nature Communications, Vol. 13, No. 1, 3106, 03.06.2022.

Research output: Contribution to Journal/MagazineJournal articlepeer-review

Harvard

Ge, Y, Zhang, W-B, Wu, X, Ruktanonchai, CW, Liu, H, Wang, J, Song, Y, Liu, M, Yan, W, Yang, J, Cleary, E, Qader, SH, Atuhaire, F, Ruktanonchai, NW, Tatem, AJ & Lai, S 2022, 'Untangling the changing impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions and vaccination on European COVID-19 trajectories', Nature Communications, vol. 13, no. 1, 3106. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-022-30897-1

APA

Ge, Y., Zhang, W-B., Wu, X., Ruktanonchai, C. W., Liu, H., Wang, J., Song, Y., Liu, M., Yan, W., Yang, J., Cleary, E., Qader, S. H., Atuhaire, F., Ruktanonchai, N. W., Tatem, A. J., & Lai, S. (2022). Untangling the changing impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions and vaccination on European COVID-19 trajectories. Nature Communications, 13(1), Article 3106. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-022-30897-1

Vancouver

Ge Y, Zhang W-B, Wu X, Ruktanonchai CW, Liu H, Wang J et al. Untangling the changing impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions and vaccination on European COVID-19 trajectories. Nature Communications. 2022 Jun 3;13(1):3106. doi: 10.1038/s41467-022-30897-1

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Bibtex

@article{7ed01e8dbeb54b019b3159297d2e587f,
title = "Untangling the changing impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions and vaccination on European COVID-19 trajectories",
abstract = "Non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) and vaccination are two fundamental approaches for mitigating the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. However, the real-world impact of NPIs versus vaccination, or a combination of both, on COVID-19 remains uncertain. To address this, we built a Bayesian inference model to assess the changing effect of NPIs and vaccination on reducing COVID-19 transmission, based on a large-scale dataset including epidemiological parameters, virus variants, vaccines, and climate factors in Europe from August 2020 to October 2021. We found that (1) the combined effect of NPIs and vaccination resulted in a 53% (95% confidence interval: 42-62%) reduction in reproduction number by October 2021, whereas NPIs and vaccination reduced the transmission by 35% and 38%, respectively; (2) compared with vaccination, the change of NPI effect was less sensitive to emerging variants; (3) the relative effect of NPIs declined 12% from May 2021 due to a lower stringency and the introduction of vaccination strategies. Our results demonstrate that NPIs were complementary to vaccination in an effort to reduce COVID-19 transmission, and the relaxation of NPIs might depend on vaccination rates, control targets, and vaccine effectiveness concerning extant and emerging variants.",
keywords = "Humans, Vaccination, Bayes Theorem, Pandemics, COVID-19, SARS-CoV-2",
author = "Yong Ge and Wen-Bin Zhang and Xilin Wu and Ruktanonchai, {Corrine W} and Haiyan Liu and Jianghao Wang and Yongze Song and Mengxiao Liu and Wei Yan and Juan Yang and Eimear Cleary and Qader, {Sarchil H} and Fatumah Atuhaire and Ruktanonchai, {Nick W} and Tatem, {Andrew J} and Shengjie Lai",
year = "2022",
month = jun,
day = "3",
doi = "10.1038/s41467-022-30897-1",
language = "English",
volume = "13",
journal = "Nature Communications",
issn = "2041-1723",
publisher = "Nature Publishing Group",
number = "1",

}

RIS

TY - JOUR

T1 - Untangling the changing impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions and vaccination on European COVID-19 trajectories

AU - Ge, Yong

AU - Zhang, Wen-Bin

AU - Wu, Xilin

AU - Ruktanonchai, Corrine W

AU - Liu, Haiyan

AU - Wang, Jianghao

AU - Song, Yongze

AU - Liu, Mengxiao

AU - Yan, Wei

AU - Yang, Juan

AU - Cleary, Eimear

AU - Qader, Sarchil H

AU - Atuhaire, Fatumah

AU - Ruktanonchai, Nick W

AU - Tatem, Andrew J

AU - Lai, Shengjie

PY - 2022/6/3

Y1 - 2022/6/3

N2 - Non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) and vaccination are two fundamental approaches for mitigating the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. However, the real-world impact of NPIs versus vaccination, or a combination of both, on COVID-19 remains uncertain. To address this, we built a Bayesian inference model to assess the changing effect of NPIs and vaccination on reducing COVID-19 transmission, based on a large-scale dataset including epidemiological parameters, virus variants, vaccines, and climate factors in Europe from August 2020 to October 2021. We found that (1) the combined effect of NPIs and vaccination resulted in a 53% (95% confidence interval: 42-62%) reduction in reproduction number by October 2021, whereas NPIs and vaccination reduced the transmission by 35% and 38%, respectively; (2) compared with vaccination, the change of NPI effect was less sensitive to emerging variants; (3) the relative effect of NPIs declined 12% from May 2021 due to a lower stringency and the introduction of vaccination strategies. Our results demonstrate that NPIs were complementary to vaccination in an effort to reduce COVID-19 transmission, and the relaxation of NPIs might depend on vaccination rates, control targets, and vaccine effectiveness concerning extant and emerging variants.

AB - Non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) and vaccination are two fundamental approaches for mitigating the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. However, the real-world impact of NPIs versus vaccination, or a combination of both, on COVID-19 remains uncertain. To address this, we built a Bayesian inference model to assess the changing effect of NPIs and vaccination on reducing COVID-19 transmission, based on a large-scale dataset including epidemiological parameters, virus variants, vaccines, and climate factors in Europe from August 2020 to October 2021. We found that (1) the combined effect of NPIs and vaccination resulted in a 53% (95% confidence interval: 42-62%) reduction in reproduction number by October 2021, whereas NPIs and vaccination reduced the transmission by 35% and 38%, respectively; (2) compared with vaccination, the change of NPI effect was less sensitive to emerging variants; (3) the relative effect of NPIs declined 12% from May 2021 due to a lower stringency and the introduction of vaccination strategies. Our results demonstrate that NPIs were complementary to vaccination in an effort to reduce COVID-19 transmission, and the relaxation of NPIs might depend on vaccination rates, control targets, and vaccine effectiveness concerning extant and emerging variants.

KW - Humans

KW - Vaccination

KW - Bayes Theorem

KW - Pandemics

KW - COVID-19

KW - SARS-CoV-2

U2 - 10.1038/s41467-022-30897-1

DO - 10.1038/s41467-022-30897-1

M3 - Journal article

VL - 13

JO - Nature Communications

JF - Nature Communications

SN - 2041-1723

IS - 1

M1 - 3106

ER -