Final published version, 2.68 MB, fulltext
Available under license: CC BY
Final published version
Licence: CC BY: Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License
Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review
Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review
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TY - JOUR
T1 - Untangling the changing impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions and vaccination on European COVID-19 trajectories
AU - Ge, Yong
AU - Zhang, Wen-Bin
AU - Wu, Xilin
AU - Ruktanonchai, Corrine W
AU - Liu, Haiyan
AU - Wang, Jianghao
AU - Song, Yongze
AU - Liu, Mengxiao
AU - Yan, Wei
AU - Yang, Juan
AU - Cleary, Eimear
AU - Qader, Sarchil H
AU - Atuhaire, Fatumah
AU - Ruktanonchai, Nick W
AU - Tatem, Andrew J
AU - Lai, Shengjie
PY - 2022/6/3
Y1 - 2022/6/3
N2 - Non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) and vaccination are two fundamental approaches for mitigating the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. However, the real-world impact of NPIs versus vaccination, or a combination of both, on COVID-19 remains uncertain. To address this, we built a Bayesian inference model to assess the changing effect of NPIs and vaccination on reducing COVID-19 transmission, based on a large-scale dataset including epidemiological parameters, virus variants, vaccines, and climate factors in Europe from August 2020 to October 2021. We found that (1) the combined effect of NPIs and vaccination resulted in a 53% (95% confidence interval: 42-62%) reduction in reproduction number by October 2021, whereas NPIs and vaccination reduced the transmission by 35% and 38%, respectively; (2) compared with vaccination, the change of NPI effect was less sensitive to emerging variants; (3) the relative effect of NPIs declined 12% from May 2021 due to a lower stringency and the introduction of vaccination strategies. Our results demonstrate that NPIs were complementary to vaccination in an effort to reduce COVID-19 transmission, and the relaxation of NPIs might depend on vaccination rates, control targets, and vaccine effectiveness concerning extant and emerging variants.
AB - Non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) and vaccination are two fundamental approaches for mitigating the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. However, the real-world impact of NPIs versus vaccination, or a combination of both, on COVID-19 remains uncertain. To address this, we built a Bayesian inference model to assess the changing effect of NPIs and vaccination on reducing COVID-19 transmission, based on a large-scale dataset including epidemiological parameters, virus variants, vaccines, and climate factors in Europe from August 2020 to October 2021. We found that (1) the combined effect of NPIs and vaccination resulted in a 53% (95% confidence interval: 42-62%) reduction in reproduction number by October 2021, whereas NPIs and vaccination reduced the transmission by 35% and 38%, respectively; (2) compared with vaccination, the change of NPI effect was less sensitive to emerging variants; (3) the relative effect of NPIs declined 12% from May 2021 due to a lower stringency and the introduction of vaccination strategies. Our results demonstrate that NPIs were complementary to vaccination in an effort to reduce COVID-19 transmission, and the relaxation of NPIs might depend on vaccination rates, control targets, and vaccine effectiveness concerning extant and emerging variants.
KW - Humans
KW - Vaccination
KW - Bayes Theorem
KW - Pandemics
KW - COVID-19
KW - SARS-CoV-2
U2 - 10.1038/s41467-022-30897-1
DO - 10.1038/s41467-022-30897-1
M3 - Journal article
VL - 13
JO - Nature Communications
JF - Nature Communications
SN - 2041-1723
IS - 1
M1 - 3106
ER -