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Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review
Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review
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TY - JOUR
T1 - Using serological measures to estimate influenza incidence in the presence of secular trends in exposure and immuno-modulation of antibody response
AU - Quandelacy, T.M.
AU - Cummings, D.A.T.
AU - Jiang, C.Q.
AU - Yang, B.
AU - Kwok, K.O.
AU - Dai, B.
AU - Shen, R.
AU - Read, J.M.
AU - Zhu, H.
AU - Guan, Y.
AU - Riley, S.
AU - Lessler, J.
PY - 2021/3/31
Y1 - 2021/3/31
N2 - Background: Influenza infection is often measured by a fourfold antibody titer increase over an influenza season (ie seroconversion). However, this approach may fail when influenza seasons are less distinct as it does not account for transient effects from recent infections. Here, we present a method to determine seroconversion for non-paired sera, adjusting for changes in individuals’ antibody titers to influenza due to the transient impact of recent exposures, varied sampling times, and laboratory processes. Methods: We applied our method using data for five H3N2 strains collected from 942 individuals, aged 2-90 years, during the first two study visits of the Fluscape cohort study (2009-2012) in Guangzhou, China. Results: After adjustment, apparent seroconversion rates for non-circulating strains decreased while we observed a 20% increase in seroconversion rates to recently circulating strains. When examining seroconversion to the most recently circulating strain (A/Brisbane/20/2007) in our study, participants aged under 18, and over 64 had the highest seroconversion rates compared to other age groups. Conclusions: Our results highlight the need for improved methods when using antibody titers as an endpoint in settings where there is no clear influenza “off” season. Methods, like those presented here, that use titers from circulating and non-circulating strains may be key.
AB - Background: Influenza infection is often measured by a fourfold antibody titer increase over an influenza season (ie seroconversion). However, this approach may fail when influenza seasons are less distinct as it does not account for transient effects from recent infections. Here, we present a method to determine seroconversion for non-paired sera, adjusting for changes in individuals’ antibody titers to influenza due to the transient impact of recent exposures, varied sampling times, and laboratory processes. Methods: We applied our method using data for five H3N2 strains collected from 942 individuals, aged 2-90 years, during the first two study visits of the Fluscape cohort study (2009-2012) in Guangzhou, China. Results: After adjustment, apparent seroconversion rates for non-circulating strains decreased while we observed a 20% increase in seroconversion rates to recently circulating strains. When examining seroconversion to the most recently circulating strain (A/Brisbane/20/2007) in our study, participants aged under 18, and over 64 had the highest seroconversion rates compared to other age groups. Conclusions: Our results highlight the need for improved methods when using antibody titers as an endpoint in settings where there is no clear influenza “off” season. Methods, like those presented here, that use titers from circulating and non-circulating strains may be key.
KW - immunodynamics
KW - incidence
KW - influenza
KW - serology
KW - adolescent
KW - adult
KW - aged
KW - antibody response
KW - antibody titer
KW - article
KW - child
KW - China
KW - cohort analysis
KW - controlled study
KW - female
KW - groups by age
KW - human
KW - immunomodulation
KW - Influenza A virus (H3N2)
KW - laboratory test
KW - major clinical study
KW - male
KW - nonhuman
KW - preschool child
KW - season
KW - seroconversion
U2 - 10.1111/irv.12807
DO - 10.1111/irv.12807
M3 - Journal article
VL - 15
SP - 235
EP - 244
JO - Influenza and Other Respiratory Viruses
JF - Influenza and Other Respiratory Viruses
SN - 1750-2640
IS - 2
ER -