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When and where might climate change be detectable in UK river flows?

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When and where might climate change be detectable in UK river flows? / Wilby, Robert; Wigley, T. M. L.
In: Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 33, No. 19, 14.10.2006, p. L19407.

Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review

Harvard

Wilby, R & Wigley, TML 2006, 'When and where might climate change be detectable in UK river flows?', Geophysical Research Letters, vol. 33, no. 19, pp. L19407. https://doi.org/10.1029/2006GL027552

APA

Wilby, R., & Wigley, T. M. L. (2006). When and where might climate change be detectable in UK river flows? Geophysical Research Letters, 33(19), L19407. https://doi.org/10.1029/2006GL027552

Vancouver

Wilby R, Wigley TML. When and where might climate change be detectable in UK river flows? Geophysical Research Letters. 2006 Oct 14;33(19):L19407. doi: 10.1029/2006GL027552

Author

Wilby, Robert ; Wigley, T. M. L. / When and where might climate change be detectable in UK river flows?. In: Geophysical Research Letters. 2006 ; Vol. 33, No. 19. pp. L19407.

Bibtex

@article{f29fddf74b0547c0ad35382242fb219f,
title = "When and where might climate change be detectable in UK river flows?",
abstract = "The Mann-Kendall statistic is used to investigate trends in homogeneous rainfall and river flow records since the 1860s for 15 basins in the UK. The relationship between the strength of trend and detection time is then explored for seasonal and annual flows. Here it is shown that, under widely assumed climate change scenarios, expected trends in UK summer river flows will seldom be detectable within typical planning horizons (the 2020s). Even where climate driven changes may already be underway, losses in deployable resources will have to be factored into long-term water plans long before they are statistically detectable. Rather than an excuse for inaction, such insights should inform more sophisticated approaches to environmental monitoring, climate change detection and adaptation.",
author = "Robert Wilby and Wigley, {T. M. L.}",
note = "This paper reveals that under the UKCIP02 climate change scenarios, expected trends in summer low flows will seldom be detectable within the 2020s planning horizon used by UK water utilities. Rather than excuse for inaction, this finding points to more sophisticated approaches for monitoring and communicating climate change impacts. RAE_import_type : Journal article RAE_uoa_type : Earth Systems and Environmental Sciences",
year = "2006",
month = oct,
day = "14",
doi = "10.1029/2006GL027552",
language = "English",
volume = "33",
pages = "L19407",
journal = "Geophysical Research Letters",
issn = "1944-8007",
publisher = "John Wiley & Sons, Ltd",
number = "19",

}

RIS

TY - JOUR

T1 - When and where might climate change be detectable in UK river flows?

AU - Wilby, Robert

AU - Wigley, T. M. L.

N1 - This paper reveals that under the UKCIP02 climate change scenarios, expected trends in summer low flows will seldom be detectable within the 2020s planning horizon used by UK water utilities. Rather than excuse for inaction, this finding points to more sophisticated approaches for monitoring and communicating climate change impacts. RAE_import_type : Journal article RAE_uoa_type : Earth Systems and Environmental Sciences

PY - 2006/10/14

Y1 - 2006/10/14

N2 - The Mann-Kendall statistic is used to investigate trends in homogeneous rainfall and river flow records since the 1860s for 15 basins in the UK. The relationship between the strength of trend and detection time is then explored for seasonal and annual flows. Here it is shown that, under widely assumed climate change scenarios, expected trends in UK summer river flows will seldom be detectable within typical planning horizons (the 2020s). Even where climate driven changes may already be underway, losses in deployable resources will have to be factored into long-term water plans long before they are statistically detectable. Rather than an excuse for inaction, such insights should inform more sophisticated approaches to environmental monitoring, climate change detection and adaptation.

AB - The Mann-Kendall statistic is used to investigate trends in homogeneous rainfall and river flow records since the 1860s for 15 basins in the UK. The relationship between the strength of trend and detection time is then explored for seasonal and annual flows. Here it is shown that, under widely assumed climate change scenarios, expected trends in UK summer river flows will seldom be detectable within typical planning horizons (the 2020s). Even where climate driven changes may already be underway, losses in deployable resources will have to be factored into long-term water plans long before they are statistically detectable. Rather than an excuse for inaction, such insights should inform more sophisticated approaches to environmental monitoring, climate change detection and adaptation.

U2 - 10.1029/2006GL027552

DO - 10.1029/2006GL027552

M3 - Journal article

VL - 33

SP - L19407

JO - Geophysical Research Letters

JF - Geophysical Research Letters

SN - 1944-8007

IS - 19

ER -