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Flash flood forecasting using Data-Based Mechanistic models and radar rainfall forecasts

Research output: Contribution in Book/Report/ProceedingsPaper

Published

Publication date2012
Host publicationWeather Radar and Hydrology
EditorsRJ Moore, SJ Cole, AJ Illingworth
Place of publicationWallingford
PublisherINT ASSOC HYDROLOGICAL SCIENCES
Pages562-567
Number of pages6
ISBN (Print)978-1-907161-26-1
Original languageEnglish

Conference

ConferenceInternational Symposium on Weather Radar and Hydrology
CityExeter
Period18/04/1121/04/11

Publication series

NameIAHS Publication
PublisherINT ASSOC HYDROLOGICAL SCIENCES
Volume351
ISSN (Print)0144-7815

Conference

ConferenceInternational Symposium on Weather Radar and Hydrology
CityExeter
Period18/04/1121/04/11

Abstract

The parsimonious time series models used within the Data-Based Mechanistic (DBM) modelling framework have been shown to provide reliable accurate forecasts in many hydrological situations. In this work the DBM methodology is applied to forecast discharges during a flash flood in a small Alpine catchment. In comparison to previous work this catchment responds rapidly to rainfall. It is demonstrated, by example, that the use of a radar-derived ensemble quantitative precipitation forecast coupled to a DBM model allows the forecast horizon to be increased to a level useful for emergency response. A treatment of the predictive uncertainty in the resulting hydrological forecasts is discussed and illustrated.