Research output: Contribution in Book/Report/Proceedings - With ISBN/ISSN › Conference contribution/Paper › peer-review
Flash flood forecasting using Data-Based Mechanistic models and radar rainfall forecasts. / Smith, Paul; Beven, Keith; Panziera, Luca et al.
Weather radar and hydrology. ed. / Robert J. Moore; Steven J. Cole; Anthony J. Illingworth. Vol. 351 Wallingford : International Association of Hydrological Sciences, 2012. p. 562-567 (IAHS Publication; Vol. 351).Research output: Contribution in Book/Report/Proceedings - With ISBN/ISSN › Conference contribution/Paper › peer-review
}
TY - GEN
T1 - Flash flood forecasting using Data-Based Mechanistic models and radar rainfall forecasts
AU - Smith, Paul
AU - Beven, Keith
AU - Panziera, Luca
AU - Germann, Urs
PY - 2012
Y1 - 2012
N2 - The parsimonious time series models used within the Data-Based Mechanistic (DBM) modelling framework have been shown to provide reliable accurate forecasts in many hydrological situations. In this work the DBM methodology is applied to forecast discharges during a flash flood in a small Alpine catchment. In comparison to previous work this catchment responds rapidly to rainfall. It is demonstrated, by example, that the use of a radar-derived ensemble quantitative precipitation forecast coupled to a DBM model allows the forecast horizon to be increased to a level useful for emergency response. A treatment of the predictive uncertainty in the resulting hydrological forecasts is discussed and illustrated.
AB - The parsimonious time series models used within the Data-Based Mechanistic (DBM) modelling framework have been shown to provide reliable accurate forecasts in many hydrological situations. In this work the DBM methodology is applied to forecast discharges during a flash flood in a small Alpine catchment. In comparison to previous work this catchment responds rapidly to rainfall. It is demonstrated, by example, that the use of a radar-derived ensemble quantitative precipitation forecast coupled to a DBM model allows the forecast horizon to be increased to a level useful for emergency response. A treatment of the predictive uncertainty in the resulting hydrological forecasts is discussed and illustrated.
KW - SYSTEMS
KW - LIMITS
KW - SCALE
KW - IMPRINTS
KW - DBM
KW - PREDICTION
KW - IMAGES
KW - NORA
KW - flash flood
KW - PRECIPITATION
KW - VERIFICATION
KW - CATCHMENT
KW - PREDICTABILITY
KW - METHODOLOGY
KW - Verzasca
M3 - Conference contribution/Paper
SN - 9781907161261
VL - 351
T3 - IAHS Publication
SP - 562
EP - 567
BT - Weather radar and hydrology
A2 - Moore, Robert J.
A2 - Cole, Steven J.
A2 - Illingworth, Anthony J.
PB - International Association of Hydrological Sciences
CY - Wallingford
T2 - International Symposium on Weather Radar and Hydrology
Y2 - 18 April 2011 through 21 April 2011
ER -