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Flash Flood forecasting using Data Based Mechanistic models and radar rainfall forecasts.

Research output: Contribution in Book/Report/ProceedingsPaper


Publication date2012
Host publicationWaether Radar and Hydrology
EditorsRobert J. Moore, Steven J. Cole, Anthony J. Illingworth
Place of publicationWallingford
Number of pages6
Original languageEnglish

Publication series

NameIAHS Red Book Series


The parsimonious time series models used within the Data-Based Mechanistic (DBM) modelling framework have been shown to provide reliable accurate forecasts in many hydrological situations. In this work the DBM methodology is applied to forecast discharges during a flash flood in a small Alpine catchment. In comparison to previous work this catchment responds rapidly to rainfall. It is demonstrated, by example, that the use of a radar-derived ensemble quantitative precipitation forecast coupled to a DBM model allows the forecast horizon to be increased to a level useful for emergency response. A treatment of the predictive uncertainty in the
resulting hydrological forecasts is discussed and illustrated.

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