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Flash Flood forecasting using Data Based Mechanistic models and radar rainfall forecasts.

Research output: Contribution in Book/Report/ProceedingsPaper

Published

Publication date2012
Host publicationWaether Radar and Hydrology
EditorsRobert J. Moore, Steven J. Cole, Anthony J. Illingworth
Place of publicationWallingford
Pages562-567
Number of pages6
Volume351
Original languageEnglish

Publication series

NameIAHS Red Book Series
PublisherIAHS

Abstract

The parsimonious time series models used within the Data-Based Mechanistic (DBM) modelling framework have been shown to provide reliable accurate forecasts in many hydrological situations. In this work the DBM methodology is applied to forecast discharges during a flash flood in a small Alpine catchment. In comparison to previous work this catchment responds rapidly to rainfall. It is demonstrated, by example, that the use of a radar-derived ensemble quantitative precipitation forecast coupled to a DBM model allows the forecast horizon to be increased to a level useful for emergency response. A treatment of the predictive uncertainty in the
resulting hydrological forecasts is discussed and illustrated.

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