Research output: Contribution in Book/Report/Proceedings - With ISBN/ISSN › Conference contribution/Paper › peer-review
Publication date | 2012 |
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Host publication | Weather radar and hydrology |
Editors | Robert J. Moore, Steven J. Cole, Anthony J. Illingworth |
Place of Publication | Wallingford |
Publisher | International Association of Hydrological Sciences |
Pages | 562-567 |
Number of pages | 6 |
Volume | 351 |
ISBN (print) | 9781907161261 |
<mark>Original language</mark> | English |
Event | International Symposium on Weather Radar and Hydrology - Exeter Duration: 18/04/2011 → 21/04/2011 |
Conference | International Symposium on Weather Radar and Hydrology |
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City | Exeter |
Period | 18/04/11 → 21/04/11 |
Name | IAHS Publication |
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Publisher | International Association of Hydrological Sciences |
Volume | 351 |
ISSN (Print) | 0144-7815 |
Conference | International Symposium on Weather Radar and Hydrology |
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City | Exeter |
Period | 18/04/11 → 21/04/11 |
The parsimonious time series models used within the Data-Based Mechanistic (DBM) modelling framework have been shown to provide reliable accurate forecasts in many hydrological situations. In this work the DBM methodology is applied to forecast discharges during a flash flood in a small Alpine catchment. In comparison to previous work this catchment responds rapidly to rainfall. It is demonstrated, by example, that the use of a radar-derived ensemble quantitative precipitation forecast coupled to a DBM model allows the forecast horizon to be increased to a level useful for emergency response. A treatment of the predictive uncertainty in the resulting hydrological forecasts is discussed and illustrated.