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Is the ozone climate penalty robust in Europe?

Research output: Contribution to journalJournal article

Published
  • Augustin Colette
  • Camilla Andersson
  • Alexander Baklanov
  • Betrand Bessagnet
  • Jørgen Brandt
  • Jesper Christensen
  • R. M. Doherty
  • Magnuz Engardt
  • Camilla Geels
  • G. Giannakopoulos
  • Gitte Hedegaard
  • Eleni Katragkou
  • Joakim Langner
  • Hang Lei
  • Astrid Manders
  • Dimitris Melas
  • Frédérik Meleux
  • Laurence Rouil
  • Mikhail Sofiev
  • Joana Soares
  • David Stevenson
  • Maria Tombrou-Tzella
  • Konstantinos Varotsos
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Article number084015
<mark>Journal publication date</mark>18/08/2015
<mark>Journal</mark>Environmental Research Letters
Issue number8
Volume10
Number of pages9
Publication statusPublished
Original languageEnglish

Abstract

Ozone air pollution is identified as one of the main threats bearing upon human health and
ecosystems, with 25 000 deaths in 2005 attributed to surface ozone in Europe (IIASA 2013 TSAP
Report #10). In addition, there is a concern that climate change could negate ozone pollution
mitigation strategies, making them insufficient over the long run and jeopardising chances to meet the long term objective set by the European Union Directive of 2008 (Directive 2008/50/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council of 21 May 2008) (60 ppbv, daily maximum). This effect has been termed the ozone climate penalty. One way of assessing this climate penalty is by driving chemistry-transport models with future climate projections while holding the ozone precursor emissions constant (although the climate penalty may also be influenced by changes in emission of precursors). Here we present an analysis of the robustness of the climate penalty in Europe across time periods and scenarios by analysing the databases underlying 11 articles published on the topic since 2007, i.e. a total of 25 model projections. This substantial body of literature has never been explored to assess the uncertainty and robustness of the climate ozone penalty because of the use of different scenarios, time periods and ozone metrics. Despite the variability of model design and setup in this database of 25 model projection, the present meta-analysis demonstrates the significance and robustness of the impact of climate change on European surface ozone with a latitudinal gradient from a penalty bearing upon large parts of continental Europe and a benefit over the North Atlantic region of the domain. Future climate scenarios present a penalty for summertime (JJA) surface ozone by the end of the century (2071–2100) of at most 5 ppbv. Over European land surfaces, the 95% confidence interval of JJA ozone change is [0.44; 0.64] and [0.99; 1.50] ppbv for the 2041–2070 and 2071–2100 time windows, respectively.

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Content from this work may be used under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 licence. Any further distribution of this work must maintain attribution to the author(s) and the title of the work, journal citation and DOI.