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Is the ozone climate penalty robust in Europe?

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Is the ozone climate penalty robust in Europe? / Colette, Augustin; Andersson, Camilla; Baklanov, Alexander et al.
In: Environmental Research Letters, Vol. 10, No. 8, 084015, 18.08.2015.

Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review

Harvard

Colette, A, Andersson, C, Baklanov, A, Bessagnet, B, Brandt, J, Christensen, J, Doherty, RM, Engardt, M, Geels, C, Giannakopoulos, G, Hedegaard, G, Katragkou, E, Langner, J, Lei, H, Manders, A, Melas, D, Meleux, F, Rouil, L, Sofiev, M, Soares, J, Stevenson, D, Tombrou-Tzella, M, Varotsos, K & Young, PJ 2015, 'Is the ozone climate penalty robust in Europe?', Environmental Research Letters, vol. 10, no. 8, 084015. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/10/8/084015

APA

Colette, A., Andersson, C., Baklanov, A., Bessagnet, B., Brandt, J., Christensen, J., Doherty, R. M., Engardt, M., Geels, C., Giannakopoulos, G., Hedegaard, G., Katragkou, E., Langner, J., Lei, H., Manders, A., Melas, D., Meleux, F., Rouil, L., Sofiev, M., ... Young, P. J. (2015). Is the ozone climate penalty robust in Europe? Environmental Research Letters, 10(8), Article 084015. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/10/8/084015

Vancouver

Colette A, Andersson C, Baklanov A, Bessagnet B, Brandt J, Christensen J et al. Is the ozone climate penalty robust in Europe? Environmental Research Letters. 2015 Aug 18;10(8):084015. doi: 10.1088/1748-9326/10/8/084015

Author

Colette, Augustin ; Andersson, Camilla ; Baklanov, Alexander et al. / Is the ozone climate penalty robust in Europe?. In: Environmental Research Letters. 2015 ; Vol. 10, No. 8.

Bibtex

@article{433a5290c47b4bb78ec448566ed2294c,
title = "Is the ozone climate penalty robust in Europe?",
abstract = "Ozone air pollution is identified as one of the main threats bearing upon human health andecosystems, with 25 000 deaths in 2005 attributed to surface ozone in Europe (IIASA 2013 TSAPReport #10). In addition, there is a concern that climate change could negate ozone pollutionmitigation strategies, making them insufficient over the long run and jeopardising chances to meet the long term objective set by the European Union Directive of 2008 (Directive 2008/50/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council of 21 May 2008) (60 ppbv, daily maximum). This effect has been termed the ozone climate penalty. One way of assessing this climate penalty is by driving chemistry-transport models with future climate projections while holding the ozone precursor emissions constant (although the climate penalty may also be influenced by changes in emission of precursors). Here we present an analysis of the robustness of the climate penalty in Europe across time periods and scenarios by analysing the databases underlying 11 articles published on the topic since 2007, i.e. a total of 25 model projections. This substantial body of literature has never been explored to assess the uncertainty and robustness of the climate ozone penalty because of the use of different scenarios, time periods and ozone metrics. Despite the variability of model design and setup in this database of 25 model projection, the present meta-analysis demonstrates the significance and robustness of the impact of climate change on European surface ozone with a latitudinal gradient from a penalty bearing upon large parts of continental Europe and a benefit over the North Atlantic region of the domain. Future climate scenarios present a penalty for summertime (JJA) surface ozone by the end of the century (2071–2100) of at most 5 ppbv. Over European land surfaces, the 95% confidence interval of JJA ozone change is [0.44; 0.64] and [0.99; 1.50] ppbv for the 2041–2070 and 2071–2100 time windows, respectively.",
author = "Augustin Colette and Camilla Andersson and Alexander Baklanov and Betrand Bessagnet and J{\o}rgen Brandt and Jesper Christensen and Doherty, {R. M.} and Magnuz Engardt and Camilla Geels and G. Giannakopoulos and Gitte Hedegaard and Eleni Katragkou and Joakim Langner and Hang Lei and Astrid Manders and Dimitris Melas and Fr{\'e}d{\'e}rik Meleux and Laurence Rouil and Mikhail Sofiev and Joana Soares and David Stevenson and Maria Tombrou-Tzella and Konstantinos Varotsos and Young, {Paul John}",
note = "Content from this work may be used under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 licence. Any further distribution of this work must maintain attribution to the author(s) and the title of the work, journal citation and DOI.",
year = "2015",
month = aug,
day = "18",
doi = "10.1088/1748-9326/10/8/084015",
language = "English",
volume = "10",
journal = "Environmental Research Letters",
issn = "1748-9326",
publisher = "IOP Publishing Ltd",
number = "8",

}

RIS

TY - JOUR

T1 - Is the ozone climate penalty robust in Europe?

AU - Colette, Augustin

AU - Andersson, Camilla

AU - Baklanov, Alexander

AU - Bessagnet, Betrand

AU - Brandt, Jørgen

AU - Christensen, Jesper

AU - Doherty, R. M.

AU - Engardt, Magnuz

AU - Geels, Camilla

AU - Giannakopoulos, G.

AU - Hedegaard, Gitte

AU - Katragkou, Eleni

AU - Langner, Joakim

AU - Lei, Hang

AU - Manders, Astrid

AU - Melas, Dimitris

AU - Meleux, Frédérik

AU - Rouil, Laurence

AU - Sofiev, Mikhail

AU - Soares, Joana

AU - Stevenson, David

AU - Tombrou-Tzella, Maria

AU - Varotsos, Konstantinos

AU - Young, Paul John

N1 - Content from this work may be used under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 licence. Any further distribution of this work must maintain attribution to the author(s) and the title of the work, journal citation and DOI.

PY - 2015/8/18

Y1 - 2015/8/18

N2 - Ozone air pollution is identified as one of the main threats bearing upon human health andecosystems, with 25 000 deaths in 2005 attributed to surface ozone in Europe (IIASA 2013 TSAPReport #10). In addition, there is a concern that climate change could negate ozone pollutionmitigation strategies, making them insufficient over the long run and jeopardising chances to meet the long term objective set by the European Union Directive of 2008 (Directive 2008/50/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council of 21 May 2008) (60 ppbv, daily maximum). This effect has been termed the ozone climate penalty. One way of assessing this climate penalty is by driving chemistry-transport models with future climate projections while holding the ozone precursor emissions constant (although the climate penalty may also be influenced by changes in emission of precursors). Here we present an analysis of the robustness of the climate penalty in Europe across time periods and scenarios by analysing the databases underlying 11 articles published on the topic since 2007, i.e. a total of 25 model projections. This substantial body of literature has never been explored to assess the uncertainty and robustness of the climate ozone penalty because of the use of different scenarios, time periods and ozone metrics. Despite the variability of model design and setup in this database of 25 model projection, the present meta-analysis demonstrates the significance and robustness of the impact of climate change on European surface ozone with a latitudinal gradient from a penalty bearing upon large parts of continental Europe and a benefit over the North Atlantic region of the domain. Future climate scenarios present a penalty for summertime (JJA) surface ozone by the end of the century (2071–2100) of at most 5 ppbv. Over European land surfaces, the 95% confidence interval of JJA ozone change is [0.44; 0.64] and [0.99; 1.50] ppbv for the 2041–2070 and 2071–2100 time windows, respectively.

AB - Ozone air pollution is identified as one of the main threats bearing upon human health andecosystems, with 25 000 deaths in 2005 attributed to surface ozone in Europe (IIASA 2013 TSAPReport #10). In addition, there is a concern that climate change could negate ozone pollutionmitigation strategies, making them insufficient over the long run and jeopardising chances to meet the long term objective set by the European Union Directive of 2008 (Directive 2008/50/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council of 21 May 2008) (60 ppbv, daily maximum). This effect has been termed the ozone climate penalty. One way of assessing this climate penalty is by driving chemistry-transport models with future climate projections while holding the ozone precursor emissions constant (although the climate penalty may also be influenced by changes in emission of precursors). Here we present an analysis of the robustness of the climate penalty in Europe across time periods and scenarios by analysing the databases underlying 11 articles published on the topic since 2007, i.e. a total of 25 model projections. This substantial body of literature has never been explored to assess the uncertainty and robustness of the climate ozone penalty because of the use of different scenarios, time periods and ozone metrics. Despite the variability of model design and setup in this database of 25 model projection, the present meta-analysis demonstrates the significance and robustness of the impact of climate change on European surface ozone with a latitudinal gradient from a penalty bearing upon large parts of continental Europe and a benefit over the North Atlantic region of the domain. Future climate scenarios present a penalty for summertime (JJA) surface ozone by the end of the century (2071–2100) of at most 5 ppbv. Over European land surfaces, the 95% confidence interval of JJA ozone change is [0.44; 0.64] and [0.99; 1.50] ppbv for the 2041–2070 and 2071–2100 time windows, respectively.

U2 - 10.1088/1748-9326/10/8/084015

DO - 10.1088/1748-9326/10/8/084015

M3 - Journal article

VL - 10

JO - Environmental Research Letters

JF - Environmental Research Letters

SN - 1748-9326

IS - 8

M1 - 084015

ER -