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Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review
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}
TY - JOUR
T1 - Is the ozone climate penalty robust in Europe?
AU - Colette, Augustin
AU - Andersson, Camilla
AU - Baklanov, Alexander
AU - Bessagnet, Betrand
AU - Brandt, Jørgen
AU - Christensen, Jesper
AU - Doherty, R. M.
AU - Engardt, Magnuz
AU - Geels, Camilla
AU - Giannakopoulos, G.
AU - Hedegaard, Gitte
AU - Katragkou, Eleni
AU - Langner, Joakim
AU - Lei, Hang
AU - Manders, Astrid
AU - Melas, Dimitris
AU - Meleux, Frédérik
AU - Rouil, Laurence
AU - Sofiev, Mikhail
AU - Soares, Joana
AU - Stevenson, David
AU - Tombrou-Tzella, Maria
AU - Varotsos, Konstantinos
AU - Young, Paul John
N1 - Content from this work may be used under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 licence. Any further distribution of this work must maintain attribution to the author(s) and the title of the work, journal citation and DOI.
PY - 2015/8/18
Y1 - 2015/8/18
N2 - Ozone air pollution is identified as one of the main threats bearing upon human health andecosystems, with 25 000 deaths in 2005 attributed to surface ozone in Europe (IIASA 2013 TSAPReport #10). In addition, there is a concern that climate change could negate ozone pollutionmitigation strategies, making them insufficient over the long run and jeopardising chances to meet the long term objective set by the European Union Directive of 2008 (Directive 2008/50/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council of 21 May 2008) (60 ppbv, daily maximum). This effect has been termed the ozone climate penalty. One way of assessing this climate penalty is by driving chemistry-transport models with future climate projections while holding the ozone precursor emissions constant (although the climate penalty may also be influenced by changes in emission of precursors). Here we present an analysis of the robustness of the climate penalty in Europe across time periods and scenarios by analysing the databases underlying 11 articles published on the topic since 2007, i.e. a total of 25 model projections. This substantial body of literature has never been explored to assess the uncertainty and robustness of the climate ozone penalty because of the use of different scenarios, time periods and ozone metrics. Despite the variability of model design and setup in this database of 25 model projection, the present meta-analysis demonstrates the significance and robustness of the impact of climate change on European surface ozone with a latitudinal gradient from a penalty bearing upon large parts of continental Europe and a benefit over the North Atlantic region of the domain. Future climate scenarios present a penalty for summertime (JJA) surface ozone by the end of the century (2071–2100) of at most 5 ppbv. Over European land surfaces, the 95% confidence interval of JJA ozone change is [0.44; 0.64] and [0.99; 1.50] ppbv for the 2041–2070 and 2071–2100 time windows, respectively.
AB - Ozone air pollution is identified as one of the main threats bearing upon human health andecosystems, with 25 000 deaths in 2005 attributed to surface ozone in Europe (IIASA 2013 TSAPReport #10). In addition, there is a concern that climate change could negate ozone pollutionmitigation strategies, making them insufficient over the long run and jeopardising chances to meet the long term objective set by the European Union Directive of 2008 (Directive 2008/50/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council of 21 May 2008) (60 ppbv, daily maximum). This effect has been termed the ozone climate penalty. One way of assessing this climate penalty is by driving chemistry-transport models with future climate projections while holding the ozone precursor emissions constant (although the climate penalty may also be influenced by changes in emission of precursors). Here we present an analysis of the robustness of the climate penalty in Europe across time periods and scenarios by analysing the databases underlying 11 articles published on the topic since 2007, i.e. a total of 25 model projections. This substantial body of literature has never been explored to assess the uncertainty and robustness of the climate ozone penalty because of the use of different scenarios, time periods and ozone metrics. Despite the variability of model design and setup in this database of 25 model projection, the present meta-analysis demonstrates the significance and robustness of the impact of climate change on European surface ozone with a latitudinal gradient from a penalty bearing upon large parts of continental Europe and a benefit over the North Atlantic region of the domain. Future climate scenarios present a penalty for summertime (JJA) surface ozone by the end of the century (2071–2100) of at most 5 ppbv. Over European land surfaces, the 95% confidence interval of JJA ozone change is [0.44; 0.64] and [0.99; 1.50] ppbv for the 2041–2070 and 2071–2100 time windows, respectively.
U2 - 10.1088/1748-9326/10/8/084015
DO - 10.1088/1748-9326/10/8/084015
M3 - Journal article
VL - 10
JO - Environmental Research Letters
JF - Environmental Research Letters
SN - 1748-9326
IS - 8
M1 - 084015
ER -