Rights statement: © 2012 by the authors; licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/).
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Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review
Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review
}
TY - JOUR
T1 - Scenario archetypes
T2 - converging rather than diverging themes
AU - Hunt, Dexter
AU - Lombardi, D. Rachel
AU - Atkinson, Stuart
AU - Barber, Austin R. G.
AU - Barnes, Matthew
AU - Boyko, Christopher
AU - Brown, Julie
AU - Bryson, John
AU - Butler, David
AU - Caputo, Silvio
AU - Caserio, Maria
AU - Coles, Richard
AU - Cooper, Rachel
AU - Farmani, Raziyeh
AU - Gaterell, Mark
AU - Hale, James
AU - Hales, A. Chantal
AU - Hewitt, C. N.
AU - Jankovic, Lubo
AU - Jefferson, Ian
AU - Leach, J.
AU - Mackenzie, Rob
AU - Memon, Fayyaz A.
AU - Sadler, Jon P.
AU - Weingaertner, Carina
AU - Whyatt, Duncan
AU - Rogers, Christopher D.F.
N1 - © 2012 by the authors; licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/).
PY - 2012/4/20
Y1 - 2012/4/20
N2 - Future scenarios provide challenging, plausible and relevant stories about how the future could unfold. Urban Futures (UF) research has identified a substantial set (>450) of seemingly disparate scenarios published over the period 1997–2011 and within this research, a sub-set of >160 scenarios has been identified (and categorized) based on their narratives according to the structure first proposed by the Global Scenario Group (GSG) in 1997; three world types (Business as Usual, Barbarization, and Great Transitions) and six scenarios, two for each world type (Policy Reform—PR, Market Forces—MF, Breakdown—B, Fortress World—FW, Eco-Communalism—EC and New Sustainability Paradigm—NSP). It is suggested that four of these scenario archetypes (MF, PR, NSP and FW) are sufficiently distinct to facilitate active stakeholder engagement in futures thinking. Moreover they are accompanied by a well-established, internally consistent set of narratives that provide a deeper understanding of the key fundamental drivers (e.g., STEEP—Social, Technological, Economic, Environmental and Political) that could bring about realistic world changes through a push or a pull effect. This is testament to the original concept of the GSG scenarios and their development and refinement over a 16 year period.
AB - Future scenarios provide challenging, plausible and relevant stories about how the future could unfold. Urban Futures (UF) research has identified a substantial set (>450) of seemingly disparate scenarios published over the period 1997–2011 and within this research, a sub-set of >160 scenarios has been identified (and categorized) based on their narratives according to the structure first proposed by the Global Scenario Group (GSG) in 1997; three world types (Business as Usual, Barbarization, and Great Transitions) and six scenarios, two for each world type (Policy Reform—PR, Market Forces—MF, Breakdown—B, Fortress World—FW, Eco-Communalism—EC and New Sustainability Paradigm—NSP). It is suggested that four of these scenario archetypes (MF, PR, NSP and FW) are sufficiently distinct to facilitate active stakeholder engagement in futures thinking. Moreover they are accompanied by a well-established, internally consistent set of narratives that provide a deeper understanding of the key fundamental drivers (e.g., STEEP—Social, Technological, Economic, Environmental and Political) that could bring about realistic world changes through a push or a pull effect. This is testament to the original concept of the GSG scenarios and their development and refinement over a 16 year period.
KW - Sustainability
KW - Future scenarios
KW - Scenario archetypes
U2 - 10.3390/su4040740
DO - 10.3390/su4040740
M3 - Journal article
VL - 4
SP - 740
EP - 772
JO - Sustainability
JF - Sustainability
IS - 4
ER -