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  • Sustainability 04 00740

    Rights statement: © 2012 by the authors; licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/).

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Scenario archetypes: converging rather than diverging themes

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Scenario archetypes: converging rather than diverging themes. / Hunt, Dexter; Lombardi, D. Rachel; Atkinson, Stuart et al.
In: Sustainability, Vol. 4, No. 4, 20.04.2012, p. 740-772.

Research output: Contribution to Journal/MagazineJournal articlepeer-review

Harvard

Hunt, D, Lombardi, DR, Atkinson, S, Barber, ARG, Barnes, M, Boyko, C, Brown, J, Bryson, J, Butler, D, Caputo, S, Caserio, M, Coles, R, Cooper, R, Farmani, R, Gaterell, M, Hale, J, Hales, AC, Hewitt, CN, Jankovic, L, Jefferson, I, Leach, J, Mackenzie, R, Memon, FA, Sadler, JP, Weingaertner, C, Whyatt, D & Rogers, CDF 2012, 'Scenario archetypes: converging rather than diverging themes', Sustainability, vol. 4, no. 4, pp. 740-772. https://doi.org/10.3390/su4040740

APA

Hunt, D., Lombardi, D. R., Atkinson, S., Barber, A. R. G., Barnes, M., Boyko, C., Brown, J., Bryson, J., Butler, D., Caputo, S., Caserio, M., Coles, R., Cooper, R., Farmani, R., Gaterell, M., Hale, J., Hales, A. C., Hewitt, C. N., Jankovic, L., ... Rogers, C. D. F. (2012). Scenario archetypes: converging rather than diverging themes. Sustainability, 4(4), 740-772. https://doi.org/10.3390/su4040740

Vancouver

Hunt D, Lombardi DR, Atkinson S, Barber ARG, Barnes M, Boyko C et al. Scenario archetypes: converging rather than diverging themes. Sustainability. 2012 Apr 20;4(4):740-772. doi: 10.3390/su4040740

Author

Hunt, Dexter ; Lombardi, D. Rachel ; Atkinson, Stuart et al. / Scenario archetypes : converging rather than diverging themes. In: Sustainability. 2012 ; Vol. 4, No. 4. pp. 740-772.

Bibtex

@article{19c3216c83de49bc9e259b4904d38003,
title = "Scenario archetypes: converging rather than diverging themes",
abstract = "Future scenarios provide challenging, plausible and relevant stories about how the future could unfold. Urban Futures (UF) research has identified a substantial set (>450) of seemingly disparate scenarios published over the period 1997–2011 and within this research, a sub-set of >160 scenarios has been identified (and categorized) based on their narratives according to the structure first proposed by the Global Scenario Group (GSG) in 1997; three world types (Business as Usual, Barbarization, and Great Transitions) and six scenarios, two for each world type (Policy Reform—PR, Market Forces—MF, Breakdown—B, Fortress World—FW, Eco-Communalism—EC and New Sustainability Paradigm—NSP). It is suggested that four of these scenario archetypes (MF, PR, NSP and FW) are sufficiently distinct to facilitate active stakeholder engagement in futures thinking. Moreover they are accompanied by a well-established, internally consistent set of narratives that provide a deeper understanding of the key fundamental drivers (e.g., STEEP—Social, Technological, Economic, Environmental and Political) that could bring about realistic world changes through a push or a pull effect. This is testament to the original concept of the GSG scenarios and their development and refinement over a 16 year period. ",
keywords = "Sustainability, Future scenarios, Scenario archetypes",
author = "Dexter Hunt and Lombardi, {D. Rachel} and Stuart Atkinson and Barber, {Austin R. G.} and Matthew Barnes and Christopher Boyko and Julie Brown and John Bryson and David Butler and Silvio Caputo and Maria Caserio and Richard Coles and Rachel Cooper and Raziyeh Farmani and Mark Gaterell and James Hale and Hales, {A. Chantal} and Hewitt, {C. N.} and Lubo Jankovic and Ian Jefferson and J. Leach and Rob Mackenzie and Memon, {Fayyaz A.} and Sadler, {Jon P.} and Carina Weingaertner and Duncan Whyatt and Rogers, {Christopher D.F.}",
note = "{\textcopyright} 2012 by the authors; licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/).",
year = "2012",
month = apr,
day = "20",
doi = "10.3390/su4040740",
language = "English",
volume = "4",
pages = "740--772",
journal = "Sustainability",
publisher = "MDPI AG",
number = "4",

}

RIS

TY - JOUR

T1 - Scenario archetypes

T2 - converging rather than diverging themes

AU - Hunt, Dexter

AU - Lombardi, D. Rachel

AU - Atkinson, Stuart

AU - Barber, Austin R. G.

AU - Barnes, Matthew

AU - Boyko, Christopher

AU - Brown, Julie

AU - Bryson, John

AU - Butler, David

AU - Caputo, Silvio

AU - Caserio, Maria

AU - Coles, Richard

AU - Cooper, Rachel

AU - Farmani, Raziyeh

AU - Gaterell, Mark

AU - Hale, James

AU - Hales, A. Chantal

AU - Hewitt, C. N.

AU - Jankovic, Lubo

AU - Jefferson, Ian

AU - Leach, J.

AU - Mackenzie, Rob

AU - Memon, Fayyaz A.

AU - Sadler, Jon P.

AU - Weingaertner, Carina

AU - Whyatt, Duncan

AU - Rogers, Christopher D.F.

N1 - © 2012 by the authors; licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/).

PY - 2012/4/20

Y1 - 2012/4/20

N2 - Future scenarios provide challenging, plausible and relevant stories about how the future could unfold. Urban Futures (UF) research has identified a substantial set (>450) of seemingly disparate scenarios published over the period 1997–2011 and within this research, a sub-set of >160 scenarios has been identified (and categorized) based on their narratives according to the structure first proposed by the Global Scenario Group (GSG) in 1997; three world types (Business as Usual, Barbarization, and Great Transitions) and six scenarios, two for each world type (Policy Reform—PR, Market Forces—MF, Breakdown—B, Fortress World—FW, Eco-Communalism—EC and New Sustainability Paradigm—NSP). It is suggested that four of these scenario archetypes (MF, PR, NSP and FW) are sufficiently distinct to facilitate active stakeholder engagement in futures thinking. Moreover they are accompanied by a well-established, internally consistent set of narratives that provide a deeper understanding of the key fundamental drivers (e.g., STEEP—Social, Technological, Economic, Environmental and Political) that could bring about realistic world changes through a push or a pull effect. This is testament to the original concept of the GSG scenarios and their development and refinement over a 16 year period.

AB - Future scenarios provide challenging, plausible and relevant stories about how the future could unfold. Urban Futures (UF) research has identified a substantial set (>450) of seemingly disparate scenarios published over the period 1997–2011 and within this research, a sub-set of >160 scenarios has been identified (and categorized) based on their narratives according to the structure first proposed by the Global Scenario Group (GSG) in 1997; three world types (Business as Usual, Barbarization, and Great Transitions) and six scenarios, two for each world type (Policy Reform—PR, Market Forces—MF, Breakdown—B, Fortress World—FW, Eco-Communalism—EC and New Sustainability Paradigm—NSP). It is suggested that four of these scenario archetypes (MF, PR, NSP and FW) are sufficiently distinct to facilitate active stakeholder engagement in futures thinking. Moreover they are accompanied by a well-established, internally consistent set of narratives that provide a deeper understanding of the key fundamental drivers (e.g., STEEP—Social, Technological, Economic, Environmental and Political) that could bring about realistic world changes through a push or a pull effect. This is testament to the original concept of the GSG scenarios and their development and refinement over a 16 year period.

KW - Sustainability

KW - Future scenarios

KW - Scenario archetypes

U2 - 10.3390/su4040740

DO - 10.3390/su4040740

M3 - Journal article

VL - 4

SP - 740

EP - 772

JO - Sustainability

JF - Sustainability

IS - 4

ER -