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    Rights statement: © Applied Probability Trust 2016

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A household SIR epidemic model incorporating time of day effects

Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review

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A household SIR epidemic model incorporating time of day effects. / Neal, Peter.
In: Journal of Applied Probability, Vol. 53, No. 2, 06.2016, p. 489-501.

Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review

Harvard

Neal, P 2016, 'A household SIR epidemic model incorporating time of day effects', Journal of Applied Probability, vol. 53, no. 2, pp. 489-501. https://doi.org/10.1017/jpr.2016.15

APA

Neal, P. (2016). A household SIR epidemic model incorporating time of day effects. Journal of Applied Probability, 53(2), 489-501. https://doi.org/10.1017/jpr.2016.15

Vancouver

Neal P. A household SIR epidemic model incorporating time of day effects. Journal of Applied Probability. 2016 Jun;53(2):489-501. Epub 2016 Jun 21. doi: 10.1017/jpr.2016.15

Author

Neal, Peter. / A household SIR epidemic model incorporating time of day effects. In: Journal of Applied Probability. 2016 ; Vol. 53, No. 2. pp. 489-501.

Bibtex

@article{01a7869ba878405c8925ff21f83f6fb2,
title = "A household SIR epidemic model incorporating time of day effects",
abstract = "During the course of a day an individual typically mixes with different groupsof individuals. Epidemic models incorporating population structure withindividuals being able to infect different groups of individuals have receivedextensive attention in the literature. However, almost exclusively the modelsassume that individuals are able to simultaneously infect members of all groups,whereas in reality individuals will typically only be able to infect members ofany group they currently reside in. In the current work we develop a modelwhere individuals move between a community and their household during thecourse of the day, only infecting within their current group. By defining a novelbranching process approximation with an explicit expression for the probabilitygenerating function of the offspring distribution, we are able to derive theprobability of a major epidemic outbreak.",
keywords = "Birth-death process, branching process, households SIR epidemic model",
author = "Peter Neal",
note = "{\textcopyright} Applied Probability Trust 2016",
year = "2016",
month = jun,
doi = "10.1017/jpr.2016.15",
language = "English",
volume = "53",
pages = "489--501",
journal = "Journal of Applied Probability",
issn = "0021-9002",
publisher = "University of Sheffield",
number = "2",

}

RIS

TY - JOUR

T1 - A household SIR epidemic model incorporating time of day effects

AU - Neal, Peter

N1 - © Applied Probability Trust 2016

PY - 2016/6

Y1 - 2016/6

N2 - During the course of a day an individual typically mixes with different groupsof individuals. Epidemic models incorporating population structure withindividuals being able to infect different groups of individuals have receivedextensive attention in the literature. However, almost exclusively the modelsassume that individuals are able to simultaneously infect members of all groups,whereas in reality individuals will typically only be able to infect members ofany group they currently reside in. In the current work we develop a modelwhere individuals move between a community and their household during thecourse of the day, only infecting within their current group. By defining a novelbranching process approximation with an explicit expression for the probabilitygenerating function of the offspring distribution, we are able to derive theprobability of a major epidemic outbreak.

AB - During the course of a day an individual typically mixes with different groupsof individuals. Epidemic models incorporating population structure withindividuals being able to infect different groups of individuals have receivedextensive attention in the literature. However, almost exclusively the modelsassume that individuals are able to simultaneously infect members of all groups,whereas in reality individuals will typically only be able to infect members ofany group they currently reside in. In the current work we develop a modelwhere individuals move between a community and their household during thecourse of the day, only infecting within their current group. By defining a novelbranching process approximation with an explicit expression for the probabilitygenerating function of the offspring distribution, we are able to derive theprobability of a major epidemic outbreak.

KW - Birth-death process

KW - branching process

KW - households SIR epidemic model

U2 - 10.1017/jpr.2016.15

DO - 10.1017/jpr.2016.15

M3 - Journal article

VL - 53

SP - 489

EP - 501

JO - Journal of Applied Probability

JF - Journal of Applied Probability

SN - 0021-9002

IS - 2

ER -