Final published version
Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review
Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review
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TY - JOUR
T1 - A model for the directional evolution of severe ocean storms
AU - Tendijck, S.
AU - Ross, E.
AU - Randell, D.
AU - Jonathan, P.
PY - 2019/2/1
Y1 - 2019/2/1
N2 - Motivated by recent work on Markov extremal models, we develop a nonstationary extension and use it to characterize the time evolution of extreme sea state significant wave height (H S ) and storm direction in the vicinity of the storm peak sea state. The approach first requires transformation of H S from a physical to a standard Laplace scale achieved using a nonstationary directional marginal extreme value model. The evolution of Laplace-scale H S is subsequently characterized using a Markov extremal model and that of the rate of change of storm direction described by an autoregressive model, the evolution variance of which is H S -dependent. Simulations on the physical scale under the estimated model give realistic realizations of storm trajectories consistent with historical data for storm trajectories at a northern North Sea location. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
AB - Motivated by recent work on Markov extremal models, we develop a nonstationary extension and use it to characterize the time evolution of extreme sea state significant wave height (H S ) and storm direction in the vicinity of the storm peak sea state. The approach first requires transformation of H S from a physical to a standard Laplace scale achieved using a nonstationary directional marginal extreme value model. The evolution of Laplace-scale H S is subsequently characterized using a Markov extremal model and that of the rate of change of storm direction described by an autoregressive model, the evolution variance of which is H S -dependent. Simulations on the physical scale under the estimated model give realistic realizations of storm trajectories consistent with historical data for storm trajectories at a northern North Sea location. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
KW - extreme
KW - Markov extremal model
KW - nonstationary
KW - significant wave height
KW - storm trajectory
KW - extreme event
KW - numerical model
KW - sea state
KW - storm
KW - trajectory
KW - Atlantic Ocean
KW - North Sea
U2 - 10.1002/env.2541
DO - 10.1002/env.2541
M3 - Journal article
VL - 30
JO - Environmetrics
JF - Environmetrics
SN - 1180-4009
IS - 1
M1 - e2541
ER -