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A new method to assess the risk of local and widespread flooding on rivers and coasts

Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review

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A new method to assess the risk of local and widespread flooding on rivers and coasts. / Lamb, Rob; Keef, Caroline; Tawn, Jonathan et al.
In: Journal of Flood Risk Management, Vol. 3, No. 4, 12.2010, p. 323-336.

Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review

Harvard

Lamb, R, Keef, C, Tawn, J, Laeger, S, Meadowcroft, I, Surendran, S, Dunning, P & Batstone, C 2010, 'A new method to assess the risk of local and widespread flooding on rivers and coasts', Journal of Flood Risk Management, vol. 3, no. 4, pp. 323-336. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1753-318X.2010.01081.x

APA

Lamb, R., Keef, C., Tawn, J., Laeger, S., Meadowcroft, I., Surendran, S., Dunning, P., & Batstone, C. (2010). A new method to assess the risk of local and widespread flooding on rivers and coasts. Journal of Flood Risk Management, 3(4), 323-336. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1753-318X.2010.01081.x

Vancouver

Lamb R, Keef C, Tawn J, Laeger S, Meadowcroft I, Surendran S et al. A new method to assess the risk of local and widespread flooding on rivers and coasts. Journal of Flood Risk Management. 2010 Dec;3(4):323-336. Epub 2010 Oct 24. doi: 10.1111/j.1753-318X.2010.01081.x

Author

Lamb, Rob ; Keef, Caroline ; Tawn, Jonathan et al. / A new method to assess the risk of local and widespread flooding on rivers and coasts. In: Journal of Flood Risk Management. 2010 ; Vol. 3, No. 4. pp. 323-336.

Bibtex

@article{3768817289d14527a1b6374373938a50,
title = "A new method to assess the risk of local and widespread flooding on rivers and coasts",
abstract = "To date, national- and regional-scale flood risk assessments have provided valuable information about the annual expected consequences of flooding, but not the exposure to widespread concurrent flooding that could have damaging consequences for people and the economy. We present a new method for flood risk assessment that accommodates the risk of widespread flooding. It is based on a statistical conditional exceedance model, which is fitted to gauged data and describes the joint probability of extreme river flows or sea levels at multiple locations. The method can be applied together with data from models for flood defence systems and economic damages to calculate a risk profile describing the probability distribution of economic losses or other consequences aggregated over a region. The method has the potential to augment national or regional risk assessments of expected annual damage with new information about the likelihoods, extent and impacts of events that could contribute to the risk.",
keywords = "Flood risk, spatial dependence, joint probability, economic damages, SEA SURGE, PRECIPITATION, DEPENDENCE, EXTREMES, RAINFALL, BRITAIN, MODEL, PROBABILITIES, FLOW",
author = "Rob Lamb and Caroline Keef and Jonathan Tawn and Stefan Laeger and I. Meadowcroft and S. Surendran and P. Dunning and C. Batstone",
year = "2010",
month = dec,
doi = "10.1111/j.1753-318X.2010.01081.x",
language = "English",
volume = "3",
pages = "323--336",
journal = "Journal of Flood Risk Management",
issn = "1753-318X",
publisher = "Wiley/Blackwell (10.1111)",
number = "4",

}

RIS

TY - JOUR

T1 - A new method to assess the risk of local and widespread flooding on rivers and coasts

AU - Lamb, Rob

AU - Keef, Caroline

AU - Tawn, Jonathan

AU - Laeger, Stefan

AU - Meadowcroft, I.

AU - Surendran, S.

AU - Dunning, P.

AU - Batstone, C.

PY - 2010/12

Y1 - 2010/12

N2 - To date, national- and regional-scale flood risk assessments have provided valuable information about the annual expected consequences of flooding, but not the exposure to widespread concurrent flooding that could have damaging consequences for people and the economy. We present a new method for flood risk assessment that accommodates the risk of widespread flooding. It is based on a statistical conditional exceedance model, which is fitted to gauged data and describes the joint probability of extreme river flows or sea levels at multiple locations. The method can be applied together with data from models for flood defence systems and economic damages to calculate a risk profile describing the probability distribution of economic losses or other consequences aggregated over a region. The method has the potential to augment national or regional risk assessments of expected annual damage with new information about the likelihoods, extent and impacts of events that could contribute to the risk.

AB - To date, national- and regional-scale flood risk assessments have provided valuable information about the annual expected consequences of flooding, but not the exposure to widespread concurrent flooding that could have damaging consequences for people and the economy. We present a new method for flood risk assessment that accommodates the risk of widespread flooding. It is based on a statistical conditional exceedance model, which is fitted to gauged data and describes the joint probability of extreme river flows or sea levels at multiple locations. The method can be applied together with data from models for flood defence systems and economic damages to calculate a risk profile describing the probability distribution of economic losses or other consequences aggregated over a region. The method has the potential to augment national or regional risk assessments of expected annual damage with new information about the likelihoods, extent and impacts of events that could contribute to the risk.

KW - Flood risk

KW - spatial dependence

KW - joint probability

KW - economic damages

KW - SEA SURGE

KW - PRECIPITATION

KW - DEPENDENCE

KW - EXTREMES

KW - RAINFALL

KW - BRITAIN

KW - MODEL

KW - PROBABILITIES

KW - FLOW

U2 - 10.1111/j.1753-318X.2010.01081.x

DO - 10.1111/j.1753-318X.2010.01081.x

M3 - Journal article

VL - 3

SP - 323

EP - 336

JO - Journal of Flood Risk Management

JF - Journal of Flood Risk Management

SN - 1753-318X

IS - 4

ER -