Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review
Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review
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TY - JOUR
T1 - A new method to assess the risk of local and widespread flooding on rivers and coasts
AU - Lamb, Rob
AU - Keef, Caroline
AU - Tawn, Jonathan
AU - Laeger, Stefan
AU - Meadowcroft, I.
AU - Surendran, S.
AU - Dunning, P.
AU - Batstone, C.
PY - 2010/12
Y1 - 2010/12
N2 - To date, national- and regional-scale flood risk assessments have provided valuable information about the annual expected consequences of flooding, but not the exposure to widespread concurrent flooding that could have damaging consequences for people and the economy. We present a new method for flood risk assessment that accommodates the risk of widespread flooding. It is based on a statistical conditional exceedance model, which is fitted to gauged data and describes the joint probability of extreme river flows or sea levels at multiple locations. The method can be applied together with data from models for flood defence systems and economic damages to calculate a risk profile describing the probability distribution of economic losses or other consequences aggregated over a region. The method has the potential to augment national or regional risk assessments of expected annual damage with new information about the likelihoods, extent and impacts of events that could contribute to the risk.
AB - To date, national- and regional-scale flood risk assessments have provided valuable information about the annual expected consequences of flooding, but not the exposure to widespread concurrent flooding that could have damaging consequences for people and the economy. We present a new method for flood risk assessment that accommodates the risk of widespread flooding. It is based on a statistical conditional exceedance model, which is fitted to gauged data and describes the joint probability of extreme river flows or sea levels at multiple locations. The method can be applied together with data from models for flood defence systems and economic damages to calculate a risk profile describing the probability distribution of economic losses or other consequences aggregated over a region. The method has the potential to augment national or regional risk assessments of expected annual damage with new information about the likelihoods, extent and impacts of events that could contribute to the risk.
KW - Flood risk
KW - spatial dependence
KW - joint probability
KW - economic damages
KW - SEA SURGE
KW - PRECIPITATION
KW - DEPENDENCE
KW - EXTREMES
KW - RAINFALL
KW - BRITAIN
KW - MODEL
KW - PROBABILITIES
KW - FLOW
U2 - 10.1111/j.1753-318X.2010.01081.x
DO - 10.1111/j.1753-318X.2010.01081.x
M3 - Journal article
VL - 3
SP - 323
EP - 336
JO - Journal of Flood Risk Management
JF - Journal of Flood Risk Management
SN - 1753-318X
IS - 4
ER -