Final published version, 404 KB, PDF document
Final published version
Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review
Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review
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TY - JOUR
T1 - A review and comparison of age-period-cohort models for cancer incidence
AU - Smith, T.R.
AU - Wakefield, J.
PY - 2016
Y1 - 2016
N2 - Age-period-cohort models have been used to examine and forecast cancer incidence and mortality for over three decades. However, the fitting and interpretation of these models requires great care because of the well-known identifiability problem that exists; given any two of age, period, and cohort, the third is determined. In this paper, we review the identifiability problem and models that have been proposed for analysis, from both frequentist and Bayesian standpoints. A number of recent analyses that use age-period-cohort models are described and critiqued before data on cancer incidence inWashington State are analyzed with various models, including a new Bayesian approach based on an identifiable parameterization. © Institute of Mathematical Statistics, 2016.
AB - Age-period-cohort models have been used to examine and forecast cancer incidence and mortality for over three decades. However, the fitting and interpretation of these models requires great care because of the well-known identifiability problem that exists; given any two of age, period, and cohort, the third is determined. In this paper, we review the identifiability problem and models that have been proposed for analysis, from both frequentist and Bayesian standpoints. A number of recent analyses that use age-period-cohort models are described and critiqued before data on cancer incidence inWashington State are analyzed with various models, including a new Bayesian approach based on an identifiable parameterization. © Institute of Mathematical Statistics, 2016.
KW - Age-period-cohort models
KW - Identifiability
KW - Random walk priors
U2 - 10.1214/16-STS580
DO - 10.1214/16-STS580
M3 - Journal article
VL - 31
SP - 591
EP - 610
JO - Statistical Science
JF - Statistical Science
SN - 0883-4237
IS - 4
ER -