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A state-space perspective on modelling and inference for online skill rating

Research output: Contribution to Journal/MagazineJournal articlepeer-review

Published
<mark>Journal publication date</mark>30/11/2024
<mark>Journal</mark>Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series C (Applied Statistics)
Issue number5
Volume73
Number of pages21
Pages (from-to)1262-1282
Publication StatusPublished
Early online date16/08/24
<mark>Original language</mark>English

Abstract

We summarize popular methods used for skill rating in competitive sports, along with their inferential paradigms and introduce new approaches based on sequential Monte Carlo and discrete hidden Markov models. We advocate for a state-space model perspective, wherein players’ skills are represented as time-varying, and match results serve as observed quantities. We explore the steps to construct the model and the three stages of inference: filtering, smoothing, and parameter estimation. We examine the challenges of scaling up to numerous players and matches, highlighting the main approximations and reductions which facilitate statistical and computational efficiency. We additionally compare approaches in a realistic experimental pipeline that can be easily reproduced and extended with our open-source Python package, abile. © The Royal Statistical Society 2024.

Bibliographic note

Export Date: 28 November 2024 Correspondence Address: Power, S.; School of Mathematics, Fry Building, Woodland Road, United Kingdom; email: sam.power@bristol.ac.uk Funding details: Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council, EPSRC, EP/R018561/1 Funding text 1: S. Power and L. Rimella were supported by EPSRC grant EP/R018561/1 (Bayes4Health).