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Licence: CC BY: Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License
Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review
Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review
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TY - JOUR
T1 - Accounting for Climate Change in Extreme Sea Level Estimation
AU - D'Arcy, Eleanor
AU - Tawn, Jonathan
AU - Sifnioti, Dafni
PY - 2022/9/21
Y1 - 2022/9/21
N2 - Extreme sea level estimates are fundamental for mitigating against coastal flooding as they provide insight for defence engineering. As the global climate changes, rising sea levels combined with increases in storm intensity and frequency pose an increasing risk to coastline communities. We present a new method for estimating extreme sea levels that accounts for the effects of climate change on extreme events that are not accounted for by mean sea level trends. We follow a joint probabilities methodology, considering skew surge and peak tides as the only components of sea levels. We model extreme skew surges using a non-stationary generalised Pareto distribution (GPD) with covariates accounting for climate change, seasonality and skew surge-peak tide interaction. We develop methods to efficiently test for extreme skew surge trends across different coastlines and seasons. We illustrate our methods using data from four UK tide gauges and estimate sea level return levels when accounting for these longer term trends.
AB - Extreme sea level estimates are fundamental for mitigating against coastal flooding as they provide insight for defence engineering. As the global climate changes, rising sea levels combined with increases in storm intensity and frequency pose an increasing risk to coastline communities. We present a new method for estimating extreme sea levels that accounts for the effects of climate change on extreme events that are not accounted for by mean sea level trends. We follow a joint probabilities methodology, considering skew surge and peak tides as the only components of sea levels. We model extreme skew surges using a non-stationary generalised Pareto distribution (GPD) with covariates accounting for climate change, seasonality and skew surge-peak tide interaction. We develop methods to efficiently test for extreme skew surge trends across different coastlines and seasons. We illustrate our methods using data from four UK tide gauges and estimate sea level return levels when accounting for these longer term trends.
U2 - 10.3390/w14192956
DO - 10.3390/w14192956
M3 - Journal article
JO - Water
JF - Water
SN - 2073-4441
ER -