Final published version
Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review
Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review
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TY - JOUR
T1 - Bayesian linear inspection planning for large-scale physical systems
AU - Randell, D.
AU - Goldstein, M.
AU - Hardman, G.
AU - Jonathan, P.
AU - Troffaes, M.
PY - 2010
Y1 - 2010
N2 - Modelling of complex corroding industrial systems is critical to effective inspection and maintenance for assurance of system integrity. Wall thickness and corrosion rate are modelled for multiple dependent corroding components, given observations of minimum wall thickness per component. At each inspection, partial observations of the system are considered. A Bayes linear approach is adopted simplifying parameter estimation and avoiding often unrealistic distributional assumptions. Key system variances are modelled, making exchangeability assumptions to facilitate analysis for sparse inspection time series. A utility-based criterion is used to assess quality of inspection design and aid decision making. The model is applied to inspection data from pipework networks on a full-scale offshore platform.
AB - Modelling of complex corroding industrial systems is critical to effective inspection and maintenance for assurance of system integrity. Wall thickness and corrosion rate are modelled for multiple dependent corroding components, given observations of minimum wall thickness per component. At each inspection, partial observations of the system are considered. A Bayes linear approach is adopted simplifying parameter estimation and avoiding often unrealistic distributional assumptions. Key system variances are modelled, making exchangeability assumptions to facilitate analysis for sparse inspection time series. A utility-based criterion is used to assess quality of inspection design and aid decision making. The model is applied to inspection data from pipework networks on a full-scale offshore platform.
KW - Bayes linear
KW - Corrosion
KW - Dynamic linear model
KW - Exchangeability
KW - Inspection planning
KW - Variance learning
KW - Corrosion rate
KW - Decision making
KW - Drilling platforms
KW - Offshore structures
KW - Parameter estimation
KW - Time series
KW - Time series analysis
KW - Walls (structural partitions)
KW - Inspection
U2 - 10.1243/1748006XJRR322
DO - 10.1243/1748006XJRR322
M3 - Journal article
VL - 224
SP - 333
EP - 345
JO - Proceedings of the Institution of Mechanical Engineers, Part O: Journal of Risk and Reliability
JF - Proceedings of the Institution of Mechanical Engineers, Part O: Journal of Risk and Reliability
SN - 1748-006X
IS - 4
ER -