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Changes over time in the 100-year return value of climate model variables

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Changes over time in the 100-year return value of climate model variables. / Leach, Callum; Ewans, Kevin; Jonathan, Philip.
In: Ocean Engineering, Vol. 324, 120605, 30.04.2025.

Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review

Harvard

Leach, C, Ewans, K & Jonathan, P 2025, 'Changes over time in the 100-year return value of climate model variables', Ocean Engineering, vol. 324, 120605. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.oceaneng.2025.120605

APA

Leach, C., Ewans, K., & Jonathan, P. (2025). Changes over time in the 100-year return value of climate model variables. Ocean Engineering, 324, Article 120605. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.oceaneng.2025.120605

Vancouver

Leach C, Ewans K, Jonathan P. Changes over time in the 100-year return value of climate model variables. Ocean Engineering. 2025 Apr 30;324:120605. Epub 2025 Feb 18. doi: 10.1016/j.oceaneng.2025.120605

Author

Leach, Callum ; Ewans, Kevin ; Jonathan, Philip. / Changes over time in the 100-year return value of climate model variables. In: Ocean Engineering. 2025 ; Vol. 324.

Bibtex

@article{bd1b1ae7a94040039d8a1dc537368986,
title = "Changes over time in the 100-year return value of climate model variables",
abstract = "We assess evidence for changes in tail characteristics of wind, solar irradiance and temperature variables output from CMIP6 global climate models (GCMs) due to climate forcing. We estimate global and climate zone annual maximum and annual means for period (2015, 2100) from daily output of seven GCMs for daily wind speed, maximum wind speed, solar irradiance and near-surface temperature. We calculate corresponding annualised data for individual locations within neighbourhoods of the North Atlantic and Celtic Sea region. We consider output for three climate scenarios and multiple climate ensembles. We estimate non-stationary extreme value models for annual extremes, and non-homogeneous Gaussian regressions for annual means, using Bayesian inference. We use estimated statistical models to quantify the distribution of (i) the change in 100-year return value for annual extremes, and (ii) the change in annual mean, over the period (2025, 2125). To summarise results, we estimate linear mixed effects models for observed variation of (i) and (ii). Evidence for changes in the 100-year return value for annual maxima of solar irradiance and temperature is much stronger than for wind variables over time and with climate scenario.",
author = "Callum Leach and Kevin Ewans and Philip Jonathan",
year = "2025",
month = apr,
day = "30",
doi = "10.1016/j.oceaneng.2025.120605",
language = "English",
volume = "324",
journal = "Ocean Engineering",
issn = "0029-8018",
publisher = "Elsevier Ltd",

}

RIS

TY - JOUR

T1 - Changes over time in the 100-year return value of climate model variables

AU - Leach, Callum

AU - Ewans, Kevin

AU - Jonathan, Philip

PY - 2025/4/30

Y1 - 2025/4/30

N2 - We assess evidence for changes in tail characteristics of wind, solar irradiance and temperature variables output from CMIP6 global climate models (GCMs) due to climate forcing. We estimate global and climate zone annual maximum and annual means for period (2015, 2100) from daily output of seven GCMs for daily wind speed, maximum wind speed, solar irradiance and near-surface temperature. We calculate corresponding annualised data for individual locations within neighbourhoods of the North Atlantic and Celtic Sea region. We consider output for three climate scenarios and multiple climate ensembles. We estimate non-stationary extreme value models for annual extremes, and non-homogeneous Gaussian regressions for annual means, using Bayesian inference. We use estimated statistical models to quantify the distribution of (i) the change in 100-year return value for annual extremes, and (ii) the change in annual mean, over the period (2025, 2125). To summarise results, we estimate linear mixed effects models for observed variation of (i) and (ii). Evidence for changes in the 100-year return value for annual maxima of solar irradiance and temperature is much stronger than for wind variables over time and with climate scenario.

AB - We assess evidence for changes in tail characteristics of wind, solar irradiance and temperature variables output from CMIP6 global climate models (GCMs) due to climate forcing. We estimate global and climate zone annual maximum and annual means for period (2015, 2100) from daily output of seven GCMs for daily wind speed, maximum wind speed, solar irradiance and near-surface temperature. We calculate corresponding annualised data for individual locations within neighbourhoods of the North Atlantic and Celtic Sea region. We consider output for three climate scenarios and multiple climate ensembles. We estimate non-stationary extreme value models for annual extremes, and non-homogeneous Gaussian regressions for annual means, using Bayesian inference. We use estimated statistical models to quantify the distribution of (i) the change in 100-year return value for annual extremes, and (ii) the change in annual mean, over the period (2025, 2125). To summarise results, we estimate linear mixed effects models for observed variation of (i) and (ii). Evidence for changes in the 100-year return value for annual maxima of solar irradiance and temperature is much stronger than for wind variables over time and with climate scenario.

U2 - 10.1016/j.oceaneng.2025.120605

DO - 10.1016/j.oceaneng.2025.120605

M3 - Journal article

VL - 324

JO - Ocean Engineering

JF - Ocean Engineering

SN - 0029-8018

M1 - 120605

ER -