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Climate change penalty and benefit on surface ozone: A global perspective based on CMIP6 earth system models

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Climate change penalty and benefit on surface ozone: A global perspective based on CMIP6 earth system models. / Zanis, Prodromos; Akritidis, Dimitris; Turnock, Steven et al.
In: Environmental Research Letters, Vol. 17, No. 2, 024014, 28.02.2022.

Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review

Harvard

Zanis, P, Akritidis, D, Turnock, S, Naik, V, Szopa, S, Georgoulias, AK, Bauer, SE, Deushi, M, Horowitz, LW, Keeble, J, Le Sager, P, O'Connor, FM, Oshima, N, Tsigaridis, K & Van Noije, T 2022, 'Climate change penalty and benefit on surface ozone: A global perspective based on CMIP6 earth system models', Environmental Research Letters, vol. 17, no. 2, 024014. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac4a34

APA

Zanis, P., Akritidis, D., Turnock, S., Naik, V., Szopa, S., Georgoulias, A. K., Bauer, S. E., Deushi, M., Horowitz, L. W., Keeble, J., Le Sager, P., O'Connor, F. M., Oshima, N., Tsigaridis, K., & Van Noije, T. (2022). Climate change penalty and benefit on surface ozone: A global perspective based on CMIP6 earth system models. Environmental Research Letters, 17(2), Article 024014. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac4a34

Vancouver

Zanis P, Akritidis D, Turnock S, Naik V, Szopa S, Georgoulias AK et al. Climate change penalty and benefit on surface ozone: A global perspective based on CMIP6 earth system models. Environmental Research Letters. 2022 Feb 28;17(2):024014. Epub 2022 Jan 28. doi: 10.1088/1748-9326/ac4a34

Author

Zanis, Prodromos ; Akritidis, Dimitris ; Turnock, Steven et al. / Climate change penalty and benefit on surface ozone : A global perspective based on CMIP6 earth system models. In: Environmental Research Letters. 2022 ; Vol. 17, No. 2.

Bibtex

@article{654c7858a95c4ff8898dab7dec7abf46,
title = "Climate change penalty and benefit on surface ozone: A global perspective based on CMIP6 earth system models",
abstract = "This work presents an analysis of the effect of climate change on surface ozone discussing the related penalties and benefits around the globe from the global modelling perspective based on simulations with five CMIP6 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6) Earth System Models. As part of AerChemMIP (Aerosol Chemistry Model Intercomparison Project) all models conducted simulation experiments considering future climate (ssp370SST) and present-day climate (ssp370pdSST) under the same future emissions trajectory (SSP3-7.0). A multi-model global average climate change benefit on surface ozone of -0.96 ± 0.07 ppbv °C-1 is calculated which is mainly linked to the dominating role of enhanced ozone destruction with higher water vapour abundances under a warmer climate. Over regions remote from pollution sources, there is a robust decline in mean surface ozone concentration on an annual basis as well as for boreal winter and summer varying spatially from -0.2 to -2 ppbv °C-1, with strongest decline over tropical oceanic regions. The implication is that over regions remote from pollution sources (except over the Arctic) there is a consistent climate change benefit for baseline ozone due to global warming. However, ozone increases over regions close to anthropogenic pollution sources or close to enhanced natural biogenic volatile organic compounds emission sources with a rate ranging regionally from 0.2 to 2 ppbv C-1, implying a regional surface ozone penalty due to global warming. Overall, the future climate change enhances the efficiency of precursor emissions to generate surface ozone in polluted regions and thus the magnitude of this effect depends on the regional emission changes considered in this study within the SSP3_7.0 scenario. The comparison of the climate change impact effect on surface ozone versus the combined effect of climate and emission changes indicates the dominant role of precursor emission changes in projecting surface ozone concentrations under future climate change scenarios.",
keywords = "benefit, climate change, CMIP6, ESMs, penalty, surface ozone",
author = "Prodromos Zanis and Dimitris Akritidis and Steven Turnock and Vaishali Naik and Sophie Szopa and Georgoulias, {Aristeidis K.} and Bauer, {Susanne E.} and Makoto Deushi and Horowitz, {Larry W.} and James Keeble and {Le Sager}, Philippe and O'Connor, {Fiona M.} and Naga Oshima and Konstantinos Tsigaridis and {Van Noije}, Twan",
note = "Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} 2022 The Author(s). Published by IOP Publishing Ltd.",
year = "2022",
month = feb,
day = "28",
doi = "10.1088/1748-9326/ac4a34",
language = "English",
volume = "17",
journal = "Environmental Research Letters",
issn = "1748-9318",
publisher = "IOP Publishing Ltd",
number = "2",

}

RIS

TY - JOUR

T1 - Climate change penalty and benefit on surface ozone

T2 - A global perspective based on CMIP6 earth system models

AU - Zanis, Prodromos

AU - Akritidis, Dimitris

AU - Turnock, Steven

AU - Naik, Vaishali

AU - Szopa, Sophie

AU - Georgoulias, Aristeidis K.

AU - Bauer, Susanne E.

AU - Deushi, Makoto

AU - Horowitz, Larry W.

AU - Keeble, James

AU - Le Sager, Philippe

AU - O'Connor, Fiona M.

AU - Oshima, Naga

AU - Tsigaridis, Konstantinos

AU - Van Noije, Twan

N1 - Publisher Copyright: © 2022 The Author(s). Published by IOP Publishing Ltd.

PY - 2022/2/28

Y1 - 2022/2/28

N2 - This work presents an analysis of the effect of climate change on surface ozone discussing the related penalties and benefits around the globe from the global modelling perspective based on simulations with five CMIP6 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6) Earth System Models. As part of AerChemMIP (Aerosol Chemistry Model Intercomparison Project) all models conducted simulation experiments considering future climate (ssp370SST) and present-day climate (ssp370pdSST) under the same future emissions trajectory (SSP3-7.0). A multi-model global average climate change benefit on surface ozone of -0.96 ± 0.07 ppbv °C-1 is calculated which is mainly linked to the dominating role of enhanced ozone destruction with higher water vapour abundances under a warmer climate. Over regions remote from pollution sources, there is a robust decline in mean surface ozone concentration on an annual basis as well as for boreal winter and summer varying spatially from -0.2 to -2 ppbv °C-1, with strongest decline over tropical oceanic regions. The implication is that over regions remote from pollution sources (except over the Arctic) there is a consistent climate change benefit for baseline ozone due to global warming. However, ozone increases over regions close to anthropogenic pollution sources or close to enhanced natural biogenic volatile organic compounds emission sources with a rate ranging regionally from 0.2 to 2 ppbv C-1, implying a regional surface ozone penalty due to global warming. Overall, the future climate change enhances the efficiency of precursor emissions to generate surface ozone in polluted regions and thus the magnitude of this effect depends on the regional emission changes considered in this study within the SSP3_7.0 scenario. The comparison of the climate change impact effect on surface ozone versus the combined effect of climate and emission changes indicates the dominant role of precursor emission changes in projecting surface ozone concentrations under future climate change scenarios.

AB - This work presents an analysis of the effect of climate change on surface ozone discussing the related penalties and benefits around the globe from the global modelling perspective based on simulations with five CMIP6 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6) Earth System Models. As part of AerChemMIP (Aerosol Chemistry Model Intercomparison Project) all models conducted simulation experiments considering future climate (ssp370SST) and present-day climate (ssp370pdSST) under the same future emissions trajectory (SSP3-7.0). A multi-model global average climate change benefit on surface ozone of -0.96 ± 0.07 ppbv °C-1 is calculated which is mainly linked to the dominating role of enhanced ozone destruction with higher water vapour abundances under a warmer climate. Over regions remote from pollution sources, there is a robust decline in mean surface ozone concentration on an annual basis as well as for boreal winter and summer varying spatially from -0.2 to -2 ppbv °C-1, with strongest decline over tropical oceanic regions. The implication is that over regions remote from pollution sources (except over the Arctic) there is a consistent climate change benefit for baseline ozone due to global warming. However, ozone increases over regions close to anthropogenic pollution sources or close to enhanced natural biogenic volatile organic compounds emission sources with a rate ranging regionally from 0.2 to 2 ppbv C-1, implying a regional surface ozone penalty due to global warming. Overall, the future climate change enhances the efficiency of precursor emissions to generate surface ozone in polluted regions and thus the magnitude of this effect depends on the regional emission changes considered in this study within the SSP3_7.0 scenario. The comparison of the climate change impact effect on surface ozone versus the combined effect of climate and emission changes indicates the dominant role of precursor emission changes in projecting surface ozone concentrations under future climate change scenarios.

KW - benefit

KW - climate change

KW - CMIP6

KW - ESMs

KW - penalty

KW - surface ozone

U2 - 10.1088/1748-9326/ac4a34

DO - 10.1088/1748-9326/ac4a34

M3 - Journal article

AN - SCOPUS:85125442565

VL - 17

JO - Environmental Research Letters

JF - Environmental Research Letters

SN - 1748-9318

IS - 2

M1 - 024014

ER -