Final published version
Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review
Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review
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TY - JOUR
T1 - Compound Poisson limits for household epidemics
AU - Neal, Peter John
PY - 2005
Y1 - 2005
N2 - We consider epidemics in populations that are partitioned into small groups known as households. Whilst infectious, a typical infective makes global and local contact with individuals chosen independently and uniformly from the whole population or their own household, as appropriate. Previously, the classical Poisson approximation for the number of survivors of a severe epidemic has been extended to the household model. However, in the current work we exploit a Sellke-type construction of the epidemic process, which enables the derivation of sufficient conditions for the existence of a compound Poisson limit theorem for the survivors of the epidemic. The results are specialised to the Reed-Frost and general stochastic epidemic models.
AB - We consider epidemics in populations that are partitioned into small groups known as households. Whilst infectious, a typical infective makes global and local contact with individuals chosen independently and uniformly from the whole population or their own household, as appropriate. Previously, the classical Poisson approximation for the number of survivors of a severe epidemic has been extended to the household model. However, in the current work we exploit a Sellke-type construction of the epidemic process, which enables the derivation of sufficient conditions for the existence of a compound Poisson limit theorem for the survivors of the epidemic. The results are specialised to the Reed-Frost and general stochastic epidemic models.
M3 - Journal article
VL - 42
SP - 334
EP - 345
JO - Journal of Applied Probability
JF - Journal of Applied Probability
SN - 0021-9002
IS - 2
ER -