TY - JOUR

T1 - Data-based mechanistic modelling of tidally affected river reaches for flood warning purposes

T2 - an example on the River Dee, UK

AU - Smith, Paul

AU - Beven, Keith

AU - Horsburgh, Kevin

PY - 2013/1

Y1 - 2013/1

N2 - This article discusses a coupled water level forecasting system constructed for the River Dee (UK) using parsimonious, physically interpretable, time series models. Tidal forecasts, provided by a simple harmonic model, and observed water levels at the upstream boundary are used to drive a nonlinear hydrological model which forecasts water levels at three gauged sites on the flood plain. The assimilation of observed data and use of the model for real-time forecasting is presented. The results generated indicate that the forecasts of river water can be both timely and accurate except close to the tidal boundary where the the tide is affected by the weir at Chester.

AB - This article discusses a coupled water level forecasting system constructed for the River Dee (UK) using parsimonious, physically interpretable, time series models. Tidal forecasts, provided by a simple harmonic model, and observed water levels at the upstream boundary are used to drive a nonlinear hydrological model which forecasts water levels at three gauged sites on the flood plain. The assimilation of observed data and use of the model for real-time forecasting is presented. The results generated indicate that the forecasts of river water can be both timely and accurate except close to the tidal boundary where the the tide is affected by the weir at Chester.

KW - flood forecasting

KW - tidal estuary

KW - data assimilation

U2 - 10.1002/qj.1926

DO - 10.1002/qj.1926

M3 - Journal article

VL - 139

SP - 340

EP - 349

JO - Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society

JF - Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society

SN - 0035-9009

IS - 671

ER -