Rights statement: This is the author’s version of a work that was accepted for publication in Ocean Engineering. Changes resulting from the publishing process, such as peer review, editing, corrections, structural formatting, and other quality control mechanisms may not be reflected in this document. Changes may have been made to this work since it was submitted for publication. A definitive version was subsequently published in Ocean Engineering, 195, 2020 DOI: 10.1016/j.oceaneng.2019.106665
Accepted author manuscript, 1.44 MB, PDF document
Available under license: CC BY-NC-ND
Final published version
Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review
Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review
}
TY - JOUR
T1 - Directional–seasonal extreme value analysis of North Sea storm conditions
AU - Hansen, H.F.
AU - Randell, D.
AU - Zeeberg, A.R.
AU - Jonathan, P.
N1 - This is the author’s version of a work that was accepted for publication in Ocean Engineering. Changes resulting from the publishing process, such as peer review, editing, corrections, structural formatting, and other quality control mechanisms may not be reflected in this document. Changes may have been made to this work since it was submitted for publication. A definitive version was subsequently published in Ocean Engineering, 195, 2020 DOI: 10.1016/j.oceaneng.2019.106665
PY - 2020/1/1
Y1 - 2020/1/1
N2 - Design and re-analysis of offshore structures requires the joint estimation of extreme values for a set of environmental variables, representing so-called long-term and short-term characteristics of the environment, subject to sources of systematic variation including directionality and seasonality. Estimation is complicated by numerous sources of uncertainty, typically including limited sample size and the specification of a number of analysis parameters (such as thresholds for peaks over threshold analysis). In this work, we present a model to estimate joint extremal characteristics of the ocean environment incorporating non-stationary marginal and conditional extreme value analysis, and thorough uncertainty quantification, within a Bayesian framework. The model is used to quantify the joint directional–seasonal structure of extremes waves, winds and currents at a location in the Danish sector of the North Sea.
AB - Design and re-analysis of offshore structures requires the joint estimation of extreme values for a set of environmental variables, representing so-called long-term and short-term characteristics of the environment, subject to sources of systematic variation including directionality and seasonality. Estimation is complicated by numerous sources of uncertainty, typically including limited sample size and the specification of a number of analysis parameters (such as thresholds for peaks over threshold analysis). In this work, we present a model to estimate joint extremal characteristics of the ocean environment incorporating non-stationary marginal and conditional extreme value analysis, and thorough uncertainty quantification, within a Bayesian framework. The model is used to quantify the joint directional–seasonal structure of extremes waves, winds and currents at a location in the Danish sector of the North Sea.
KW - Offshore design
KW - Extremes
KW - Non-stationary
KW - Conditional extremes
KW - Bayesian
KW - Uncertainty
U2 - 10.1016/j.oceaneng.2019.106665
DO - 10.1016/j.oceaneng.2019.106665
M3 - Journal article
VL - 195
JO - Ocean Engineering
JF - Ocean Engineering
SN - 0029-8018
M1 - 106665
ER -