Methods of computational statistics allow efficient estimation of extreme ocean environments, and facilitate optimal operational decision making. We describe estimation of extreme quantiles of total water level and related quantities from a non-stationary hierarchical model for ocean storms. The model incorporates a directional–seasonal extreme value model for occurrences of storm peak significant wave height, a conditional directional model for within-storm evolution of sea states relative to storm peak, a conditional model for the maximum crest within a sea state, and models for total water level. Importance sampling is used for efficient computation of marginal total water level characteristics. We use the model to estimate an optimal un-manning procedure for a notional North Sea offshore structure in severe conditions.
This is the author’s version of a work that was accepted for publication in Ocean Engineering. Changes resulting from the publishing process, such as peer review, editing, corrections, structural formatting, and other quality control mechanisms may not be reflected in this document. Changes may have been made to this work since it was submitted for publication. A definitive version was subsequently published in Ocean Engineering, 238, 2021 DOI: 10.1016/j.oceaneng.2021.109642
