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Empirical evidence on individual, group and shrinkage seasonal indices

Research output: Contribution to Journal/MagazineJournal articlepeer-review

<mark>Journal publication date</mark>1/07/2008
<mark>Journal</mark>International Journal of Forecasting
Issue number3
Number of pages10
Pages (from-to)525-534
Publication StatusPublished
Early online date18/04/08
<mark>Original language</mark>English


This paper provides empirical evidence on forecasting seasonal demand using both individual and group seasonal indices methods. The findings show that the group seasonal indices methods outperform the individual seasonal indices method. This paper also offers empirical results from comparing two shrinkage methods with the group seasonal indices methods. The theoretical rules developed by the authors for choosing between group seasonal indices and individual seasonal indices produce more accurate forecasts than do published rules for choosing between shrinkage methods, when measured by the MSE, and are competitive when measured by the symmetric MAPE.