TY - JOUR

T1 - Empirical evidence on individual, group and shrinkage seasonal indices

AU - Chen, Huijing

AU - Boylan, John

PY - 2008/7/1

Y1 - 2008/7/1

N2 - This paper provides empirical evidence on forecasting seasonal demand using both individual and group seasonal indices methods. The findings show that the group seasonal indices methods outperform the individual seasonal indices method. This paper also offers empirical results from comparing two shrinkage methods with the group seasonal indices methods. The theoretical rules developed by the authors for choosing between group seasonal indices and individual seasonal indices produce more accurate forecasts than do published rules for choosing between shrinkage methods, when measured by the MSE, and are competitive when measured by the symmetric MAPE.

AB - This paper provides empirical evidence on forecasting seasonal demand using both individual and group seasonal indices methods. The findings show that the group seasonal indices methods outperform the individual seasonal indices method. This paper also offers empirical results from comparing two shrinkage methods with the group seasonal indices methods. The theoretical rules developed by the authors for choosing between group seasonal indices and individual seasonal indices produce more accurate forecasts than do published rules for choosing between shrinkage methods, when measured by the MSE, and are competitive when measured by the symmetric MAPE.

KW - Forecasting

KW - Seasonality

KW - Grouping

KW - Shrinkage

U2 - 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2008.02.005

DO - 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2008.02.005

M3 - Journal article

VL - 24

SP - 525

EP - 534

JO - International Journal of Forecasting

JF - International Journal of Forecasting

SN - 0169-2070

IS - 3

ER -