Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review
Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review
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TY - JOUR
T1 - Empirical evidence on individual, group and shrinkage seasonal indices
AU - Chen, Huijing
AU - Boylan, John
PY - 2008/7/1
Y1 - 2008/7/1
N2 - This paper provides empirical evidence on forecasting seasonal demand using both individual and group seasonal indices methods. The findings show that the group seasonal indices methods outperform the individual seasonal indices method. This paper also offers empirical results from comparing two shrinkage methods with the group seasonal indices methods. The theoretical rules developed by the authors for choosing between group seasonal indices and individual seasonal indices produce more accurate forecasts than do published rules for choosing between shrinkage methods, when measured by the MSE, and are competitive when measured by the symmetric MAPE.
AB - This paper provides empirical evidence on forecasting seasonal demand using both individual and group seasonal indices methods. The findings show that the group seasonal indices methods outperform the individual seasonal indices method. This paper also offers empirical results from comparing two shrinkage methods with the group seasonal indices methods. The theoretical rules developed by the authors for choosing between group seasonal indices and individual seasonal indices produce more accurate forecasts than do published rules for choosing between shrinkage methods, when measured by the MSE, and are competitive when measured by the symmetric MAPE.
KW - Forecasting
KW - Seasonality
KW - Grouping
KW - Shrinkage
U2 - 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2008.02.005
DO - 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2008.02.005
M3 - Journal article
VL - 24
SP - 525
EP - 534
JO - International Journal of Forecasting
JF - International Journal of Forecasting
SN - 0169-2070
IS - 3
ER -