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Ethnic diversity and conflict in sub-Saharan Africa: Evidence from refugee-hosting areas

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Article number103393
<mark>Journal publication date</mark>31/01/2025
<mark>Journal</mark>Journal of Development Economics
Volume172
Publication StatusPublished
Early online date5/11/24
<mark>Original language</mark>English

Abstract

This study explores how forced migration affects ethnic diversity and conflict in 23 Sub-Saharan African countries from 2005 to 2016. Using UNHCR data on refugee camp locations, we predict changes in local ethnic diversity. By integrating Afrobarometer and Ethnic Power Relations-Ethnicity of Refugees datasets, we analyse the link between refugee-induced diversity and conflict occurrence. Findings indicate that refugee-induced polarization increases the risk of local violence, while fractionalization has a mitigating effect. Notably, the number of refugees does not impact the likelihood of conflict; instead, alterations in ethnic diversity, especially polarization, emerge as the primary driver of conflict.