TY - JOUR

T1 - Ethnic diversity and conflict in sub-Saharan Africa

T2 - Evidence from refugee-hosting areas

AU - Bertinelli, L.

AU - Cömertpay, R.

AU - Maystadt, J.-F.

PY - 2025/1/31

Y1 - 2025/1/31

N2 - This study explores how forced migration affects ethnic diversity and conflict in 23 Sub-Saharan African countries from 2005 to 2016. Using UNHCR data on refugee camp locations, we predict changes in local ethnic diversity. By integrating Afrobarometer and Ethnic Power Relations-Ethnicity of Refugees datasets, we analyse the link between refugee-induced diversity and conflict occurrence. Findings indicate that refugee-induced polarization increases the risk of local violence, while fractionalization has a mitigating effect. Notably, the number of refugees does not impact the likelihood of conflict; instead, alterations in ethnic diversity, especially polarization, emerge as the primary driver of conflict.

AB - This study explores how forced migration affects ethnic diversity and conflict in 23 Sub-Saharan African countries from 2005 to 2016. Using UNHCR data on refugee camp locations, we predict changes in local ethnic diversity. By integrating Afrobarometer and Ethnic Power Relations-Ethnicity of Refugees datasets, we analyse the link between refugee-induced diversity and conflict occurrence. Findings indicate that refugee-induced polarization increases the risk of local violence, while fractionalization has a mitigating effect. Notably, the number of refugees does not impact the likelihood of conflict; instead, alterations in ethnic diversity, especially polarization, emerge as the primary driver of conflict.

U2 - 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2024.103393

DO - 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2024.103393

M3 - Journal article

VL - 172

JO - Journal of Development Economics

JF - Journal of Development Economics

SN - 0304-3878

M1 - 103393

ER -