Final published version
Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review
Extreme value analysis of decadal variations in storm surge elevations. / Butler, Adam; Heffernan, Janet E.; Tawn, Jonathan A. et al.
In: Journal of Marine Systems, Vol. 67, No. 1-2, 31.08.2007, p. 189-200.Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review
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TY - JOUR
T1 - Extreme value analysis of decadal variations in storm surge elevations
AU - Butler, Adam
AU - Heffernan, Janet E.
AU - Tawn, Jonathan A.
AU - Flather, Roger A.
AU - Horsburgh, Kevin J.
PY - 2007/8/31
Y1 - 2007/8/31
N2 - We use a novel statistical approach to analyse changes in the occurrence and severity of storm surge events in the southern and central North Sea over the period 1955-2000, using 1) output from a numerical storm surge model and 2) in situ data on surge levels at sites for which sufficiently long observational records are available. The methodology provides a robust diagnostic tool for assessing the ability of models to reproduce the observed characteristics of storm surges, in a fashion that properly accounts both for variability within a single long run of the model and for recording error in observational data on sea levels. The model re-analysis data show strong positive trends in the frequency and severity of storm surge events at locations in the north-eastern North Sea, whilst trends at locations in the southern and western North Sea appear to be dominated by decadal variability. Trends in in situ data for sites along the North Sea coast are fairly synchronous with corresponding trends in the model re-analysis data, with the most serious discrepancies attributable to known problems in the observational record.
AB - We use a novel statistical approach to analyse changes in the occurrence and severity of storm surge events in the southern and central North Sea over the period 1955-2000, using 1) output from a numerical storm surge model and 2) in situ data on surge levels at sites for which sufficiently long observational records are available. The methodology provides a robust diagnostic tool for assessing the ability of models to reproduce the observed characteristics of storm surges, in a fashion that properly accounts both for variability within a single long run of the model and for recording error in observational data on sea levels. The model re-analysis data show strong positive trends in the frequency and severity of storm surge events at locations in the north-eastern North Sea, whilst trends at locations in the southern and western North Sea appear to be dominated by decadal variability. Trends in in situ data for sites along the North Sea coast are fairly synchronous with corresponding trends in the model re-analysis data, with the most serious discrepancies attributable to known problems in the observational record.
KW - Climatic changes
KW - European continental shelf
KW - Extreme values
KW - North Sea
KW - Sea level changes
KW - Statistical modelling
KW - Storm surges
KW - Tide-surge interaction
U2 - 10.1016/j.jmarsys.2006.10.006
DO - 10.1016/j.jmarsys.2006.10.006
M3 - Journal article
AN - SCOPUS:34447281984
VL - 67
SP - 189
EP - 200
JO - Journal of Marine Systems
JF - Journal of Marine Systems
SN - 0924-7963
IS - 1-2
ER -