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Extreme value analysis of decadal variations in storm surge elevations

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Extreme value analysis of decadal variations in storm surge elevations. / Butler, Adam; Heffernan, Janet E.; Tawn, Jonathan A. et al.
In: Journal of Marine Systems, Vol. 67, No. 1-2, 31.08.2007, p. 189-200.

Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review

Harvard

Butler, A, Heffernan, JE, Tawn, JA, Flather, RA & Horsburgh, KJ 2007, 'Extreme value analysis of decadal variations in storm surge elevations', Journal of Marine Systems, vol. 67, no. 1-2, pp. 189-200. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmarsys.2006.10.006

APA

Butler, A., Heffernan, J. E., Tawn, J. A., Flather, R. A., & Horsburgh, K. J. (2007). Extreme value analysis of decadal variations in storm surge elevations. Journal of Marine Systems, 67(1-2), 189-200. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmarsys.2006.10.006

Vancouver

Butler A, Heffernan JE, Tawn JA, Flather RA, Horsburgh KJ. Extreme value analysis of decadal variations in storm surge elevations. Journal of Marine Systems. 2007 Aug 31;67(1-2):189-200. Epub 2006 Dec 13. doi: 10.1016/j.jmarsys.2006.10.006

Author

Butler, Adam ; Heffernan, Janet E. ; Tawn, Jonathan A. et al. / Extreme value analysis of decadal variations in storm surge elevations. In: Journal of Marine Systems. 2007 ; Vol. 67, No. 1-2. pp. 189-200.

Bibtex

@article{ae47e8f71137497fb18dc870fca1ff35,
title = "Extreme value analysis of decadal variations in storm surge elevations",
abstract = "We use a novel statistical approach to analyse changes in the occurrence and severity of storm surge events in the southern and central North Sea over the period 1955-2000, using 1) output from a numerical storm surge model and 2) in situ data on surge levels at sites for which sufficiently long observational records are available. The methodology provides a robust diagnostic tool for assessing the ability of models to reproduce the observed characteristics of storm surges, in a fashion that properly accounts both for variability within a single long run of the model and for recording error in observational data on sea levels. The model re-analysis data show strong positive trends in the frequency and severity of storm surge events at locations in the north-eastern North Sea, whilst trends at locations in the southern and western North Sea appear to be dominated by decadal variability. Trends in in situ data for sites along the North Sea coast are fairly synchronous with corresponding trends in the model re-analysis data, with the most serious discrepancies attributable to known problems in the observational record.",
keywords = "Climatic changes, European continental shelf, Extreme values, North Sea, Sea level changes, Statistical modelling, Storm surges, Tide-surge interaction",
author = "Adam Butler and Heffernan, {Janet E.} and Tawn, {Jonathan A.} and Flather, {Roger A.} and Horsburgh, {Kevin J.}",
year = "2007",
month = aug,
day = "31",
doi = "10.1016/j.jmarsys.2006.10.006",
language = "English",
volume = "67",
pages = "189--200",
journal = "Journal of Marine Systems",
issn = "0924-7963",
publisher = "Elsevier",
number = "1-2",

}

RIS

TY - JOUR

T1 - Extreme value analysis of decadal variations in storm surge elevations

AU - Butler, Adam

AU - Heffernan, Janet E.

AU - Tawn, Jonathan A.

AU - Flather, Roger A.

AU - Horsburgh, Kevin J.

PY - 2007/8/31

Y1 - 2007/8/31

N2 - We use a novel statistical approach to analyse changes in the occurrence and severity of storm surge events in the southern and central North Sea over the period 1955-2000, using 1) output from a numerical storm surge model and 2) in situ data on surge levels at sites for which sufficiently long observational records are available. The methodology provides a robust diagnostic tool for assessing the ability of models to reproduce the observed characteristics of storm surges, in a fashion that properly accounts both for variability within a single long run of the model and for recording error in observational data on sea levels. The model re-analysis data show strong positive trends in the frequency and severity of storm surge events at locations in the north-eastern North Sea, whilst trends at locations in the southern and western North Sea appear to be dominated by decadal variability. Trends in in situ data for sites along the North Sea coast are fairly synchronous with corresponding trends in the model re-analysis data, with the most serious discrepancies attributable to known problems in the observational record.

AB - We use a novel statistical approach to analyse changes in the occurrence and severity of storm surge events in the southern and central North Sea over the period 1955-2000, using 1) output from a numerical storm surge model and 2) in situ data on surge levels at sites for which sufficiently long observational records are available. The methodology provides a robust diagnostic tool for assessing the ability of models to reproduce the observed characteristics of storm surges, in a fashion that properly accounts both for variability within a single long run of the model and for recording error in observational data on sea levels. The model re-analysis data show strong positive trends in the frequency and severity of storm surge events at locations in the north-eastern North Sea, whilst trends at locations in the southern and western North Sea appear to be dominated by decadal variability. Trends in in situ data for sites along the North Sea coast are fairly synchronous with corresponding trends in the model re-analysis data, with the most serious discrepancies attributable to known problems in the observational record.

KW - Climatic changes

KW - European continental shelf

KW - Extreme values

KW - North Sea

KW - Sea level changes

KW - Statistical modelling

KW - Storm surges

KW - Tide-surge interaction

U2 - 10.1016/j.jmarsys.2006.10.006

DO - 10.1016/j.jmarsys.2006.10.006

M3 - Journal article

AN - SCOPUS:34447281984

VL - 67

SP - 189

EP - 200

JO - Journal of Marine Systems

JF - Journal of Marine Systems

SN - 0924-7963

IS - 1-2

ER -