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Flood frequency estimation by continuous simulation (with likelihood based uncertainty estimation).

Research output: Contribution to Journal/MagazineJournal articlepeer-review

<mark>Journal publication date</mark>2000
<mark>Journal</mark>Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
Issue number1
Number of pages12
Pages (from-to)23-34
Publication StatusPublished
<mark>Original language</mark>English


A continuous simulation methodology, which incorporates the quantification of modelling uncertainties, is used for flood frequency estimation. The methodology utilises the rainfall-runoff model TOPMODEL within the uncertainty framework of GLUE. Long return period estimates are obtained through the coupling of a stochastic rainfall generator with TOPMODEL. Examples of applications to four gauged UK catchments are provided. A comparison with a traditional statistical approach indicates the suitability of the methodology as an alternative technique for flood frequency estimation. It is suggested that, given an appropriate choice of rainfall-runoff model and stochastic rainstorm generator, the basic methodology can be adapted for use in many other regions of the world.