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Forecasting for intermittent demand: the estimation of an unbiased average

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<mark>Journal publication date</mark>1/05/2006
<mark>Journal</mark>Journal of the Operational Research Society
Issue number5
Volume57
Number of pages5
Pages (from-to)588-592
Publication StatusPublished
<mark>Original language</mark>English

Abstract

The majority of the range of items held by many stockists exhibit intermittent demand. Accurate forecasting of the issue rate for such items is important and several methods have been developed, but all produce biased forecasts to a greater or lesser degree. This paper derives the bias expected when the order arrivals follows a Poisson process, which leads to a correction factor for application in practice. Extensions to some other arrival processes are briefly considered.