Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review
Forecasting for intermittent demand : the estimation of an unbiased average. / Shale, E. A.; Boylan, John; Johnston, F. R.
In: Journal of the Operational Research Society, Vol. 57, No. 5, 01.05.2006, p. 588-592.Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review
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TY - JOUR
T1 - Forecasting for intermittent demand
T2 - the estimation of an unbiased average
AU - Shale, E. A.
AU - Boylan, John
AU - Johnston, F. R.
PY - 2006/5/1
Y1 - 2006/5/1
N2 - The majority of the range of items held by many stockists exhibit intermittent demand. Accurate forecasting of the issue rate for such items is important and several methods have been developed, but all produce biased forecasts to a greater or lesser degree. This paper derives the bias expected when the order arrivals follows a Poisson process, which leads to a correction factor for application in practice. Extensions to some other arrival processes are briefly considered.
AB - The majority of the range of items held by many stockists exhibit intermittent demand. Accurate forecasting of the issue rate for such items is important and several methods have been developed, but all produce biased forecasts to a greater or lesser degree. This paper derives the bias expected when the order arrivals follows a Poisson process, which leads to a correction factor for application in practice. Extensions to some other arrival processes are briefly considered.
U2 - 10.1057/palgrave.jors.2602031
DO - 10.1057/palgrave.jors.2602031
M3 - Journal article
VL - 57
SP - 588
EP - 592
JO - Journal of the Operational Research Society
JF - Journal of the Operational Research Society
SN - 0160-5682
IS - 5
ER -