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  • Huang_Fildes_Soopramanien_2019_MANUSCRIPT_accepted_version

    Rights statement: This is the author’s version of a work that was acceptedfor publication in European Journal of Operational Research. Changes resulting from the publishing process, such as peer review, editing, corrections, structural formatting, and other quality control mechanisms may not be reflected in this document. Changes may have been made to this work 3since it was submitted for publication. A definitive version was subsequently published in European Journal of Operational Research, 279, 2, 2019 DOI: 10.1016/j.ejor.2019.06.011

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Forecasting retailer product sales in the presence of structural change

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Forecasting retailer product sales in the presence of structural change. / Huang, T.; Fildes, R.; Soopramanien, D.

In: European Journal of Operational Research, Vol. 279, No. 2, 01.12.2019, p. 459-470.

Research output: Contribution to Journal/MagazineJournal articlepeer-review

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Huang T, Fildes R, Soopramanien D. Forecasting retailer product sales in the presence of structural change. European Journal of Operational Research. 2019 Dec 1;279(2):459-470. Epub 2019 Jun 10. doi: 10.1016/j.ejor.2019.06.011

Author

Huang, T. ; Fildes, R. ; Soopramanien, D. / Forecasting retailer product sales in the presence of structural change. In: European Journal of Operational Research. 2019 ; Vol. 279, No. 2. pp. 459-470.

Bibtex

@article{f1feb83e8b7a47c3bc27f5239fde99c2,
title = "Forecasting retailer product sales in the presence of structural change",
abstract = "Grocery retailers need accurate sales forecasts at the Stock Keeping Unit (SKU) level to effectively manage their inventory. Previous studies have proposed forecasting methods which incorporate the effect of various marketing activities including prices and promotions. However, their methods have overlooked that the effects of the marketing activities on product sales may change over time. Therefore, these methods may be subject to the structural change problem and generate biased and less accurate forecasts. In this study, we propose more effective methods to forecast retailer product sales which take into account the problem of structural change. Based on data from a well-known US retailer, we show that our methods outperform conventional forecasting methods that ignore the possibility of such changes.",
keywords = "Analytics, Forecasting, OR in marketing, Retailing, Commerce, Forecasting methods, Grocery retailer, Marketing activities, Product sales, Sales forecasts, Stock keeping unit, Sales",
author = "T. Huang and R. Fildes and D. Soopramanien",
note = "This is the author{\textquoteright}s version of a work that was acceptedfor publication in European Journal of Operational Research. Changes resulting from the publishing process, such as peer review, editing, corrections, structural formatting, and other quality control mechanisms may not be reflected in this document. Changes may have been made to this work 3since it was submitted for publication. A definitive version was subsequently published in European Journal of Operational Research, 279, 2, 2019 DOI: 10.1016/j.ejor.2019.06.011",
year = "2019",
month = dec,
day = "1",
doi = "10.1016/j.ejor.2019.06.011",
language = "English",
volume = "279",
pages = "459--470",
journal = "European Journal of Operational Research",
issn = "0377-2217",
publisher = "Elsevier Science B.V.",
number = "2",

}

RIS

TY - JOUR

T1 - Forecasting retailer product sales in the presence of structural change

AU - Huang, T.

AU - Fildes, R.

AU - Soopramanien, D.

N1 - This is the author’s version of a work that was acceptedfor publication in European Journal of Operational Research. Changes resulting from the publishing process, such as peer review, editing, corrections, structural formatting, and other quality control mechanisms may not be reflected in this document. Changes may have been made to this work 3since it was submitted for publication. A definitive version was subsequently published in European Journal of Operational Research, 279, 2, 2019 DOI: 10.1016/j.ejor.2019.06.011

PY - 2019/12/1

Y1 - 2019/12/1

N2 - Grocery retailers need accurate sales forecasts at the Stock Keeping Unit (SKU) level to effectively manage their inventory. Previous studies have proposed forecasting methods which incorporate the effect of various marketing activities including prices and promotions. However, their methods have overlooked that the effects of the marketing activities on product sales may change over time. Therefore, these methods may be subject to the structural change problem and generate biased and less accurate forecasts. In this study, we propose more effective methods to forecast retailer product sales which take into account the problem of structural change. Based on data from a well-known US retailer, we show that our methods outperform conventional forecasting methods that ignore the possibility of such changes.

AB - Grocery retailers need accurate sales forecasts at the Stock Keeping Unit (SKU) level to effectively manage their inventory. Previous studies have proposed forecasting methods which incorporate the effect of various marketing activities including prices and promotions. However, their methods have overlooked that the effects of the marketing activities on product sales may change over time. Therefore, these methods may be subject to the structural change problem and generate biased and less accurate forecasts. In this study, we propose more effective methods to forecast retailer product sales which take into account the problem of structural change. Based on data from a well-known US retailer, we show that our methods outperform conventional forecasting methods that ignore the possibility of such changes.

KW - Analytics

KW - Forecasting

KW - OR in marketing

KW - Retailing

KW - Commerce

KW - Forecasting methods

KW - Grocery retailer

KW - Marketing activities

KW - Product sales

KW - Sales forecasts

KW - Stock keeping unit

KW - Sales

U2 - 10.1016/j.ejor.2019.06.011

DO - 10.1016/j.ejor.2019.06.011

M3 - Journal article

VL - 279

SP - 459

EP - 470

JO - European Journal of Operational Research

JF - European Journal of Operational Research

SN - 0377-2217

IS - 2

ER -