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Global Changes in 20-Year, 50-Year, and 100-Year River Floods

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Global Changes in 20-Year, 50-Year, and 100-Year River Floods. / Slater, L.; Villarini, G.; Archfield, S.; Faulkner, D.; Lamb, R.; Khouakhi, A.; Yin, J.

In: Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 48, No. 6, e2020GL091824, 28.03.2021.

Research output: Contribution to Journal/MagazineJournal articlepeer-review

Harvard

Slater, L, Villarini, G, Archfield, S, Faulkner, D, Lamb, R, Khouakhi, A & Yin, J 2021, 'Global Changes in 20-Year, 50-Year, and 100-Year River Floods', Geophysical Research Letters, vol. 48, no. 6, e2020GL091824. https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL091824

APA

Slater, L., Villarini, G., Archfield, S., Faulkner, D., Lamb, R., Khouakhi, A., & Yin, J. (2021). Global Changes in 20-Year, 50-Year, and 100-Year River Floods. Geophysical Research Letters, 48(6), [e2020GL091824]. https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL091824

Vancouver

Slater L, Villarini G, Archfield S, Faulkner D, Lamb R, Khouakhi A et al. Global Changes in 20-Year, 50-Year, and 100-Year River Floods. Geophysical Research Letters. 2021 Mar 28;48(6). e2020GL091824. https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL091824

Author

Slater, L. ; Villarini, G. ; Archfield, S. ; Faulkner, D. ; Lamb, R. ; Khouakhi, A. ; Yin, J. / Global Changes in 20-Year, 50-Year, and 100-Year River Floods. In: Geophysical Research Letters. 2021 ; Vol. 48, No. 6.

Bibtex

@article{d333280d526f4776afbbcbe5d060f3dc,
title = "Global Changes in 20-Year, 50-Year, and 100-Year River Floods",
abstract = "Abstract Concepts like the 100-year flood event can be misleading if they are not updated to reflect significant changes over time. Here, we model observed annual maximum daily streamflow using a nonstationary approach to provide the first global picture of changes in: (a) the magnitudes of the 20-, 50-, and 100-year floods (i.e., flows of a given exceedance probability in each year); (b) the return periods of the 20-, 50-, and 100-year floods, as assessed in 1970 (i.e., flows of a fixed magnitude); and (c) corresponding flood probabilities. Empirically, we find the 20-/50-year floods have mostly increased in temperate climate zones, but decreased in arid, tropical, polar, and cold zones. In contrast, 100-year floods have mostly decreased in arid/temperate zones and exhibit mixed trends in cold zones, but results are influenced by the small number of stations with long records, and highlight the need for continued updating of hazard assessments.",
keywords = "floods, global, hazard, nonstationarity, probabilities, return periods",
author = "L. Slater and G. Villarini and S. Archfield and D. Faulkner and R. Lamb and A. Khouakhi and J. Yin",
year = "2021",
month = mar,
day = "28",
doi = "10.1029/2020GL091824",
language = "English",
volume = "48",
journal = "Geophysical Research Letters",
issn = "0094-8276",
publisher = "John Wiley & Sons, Ltd",
number = "6",

}

RIS

TY - JOUR

T1 - Global Changes in 20-Year, 50-Year, and 100-Year River Floods

AU - Slater, L.

AU - Villarini, G.

AU - Archfield, S.

AU - Faulkner, D.

AU - Lamb, R.

AU - Khouakhi, A.

AU - Yin, J.

PY - 2021/3/28

Y1 - 2021/3/28

N2 - Abstract Concepts like the 100-year flood event can be misleading if they are not updated to reflect significant changes over time. Here, we model observed annual maximum daily streamflow using a nonstationary approach to provide the first global picture of changes in: (a) the magnitudes of the 20-, 50-, and 100-year floods (i.e., flows of a given exceedance probability in each year); (b) the return periods of the 20-, 50-, and 100-year floods, as assessed in 1970 (i.e., flows of a fixed magnitude); and (c) corresponding flood probabilities. Empirically, we find the 20-/50-year floods have mostly increased in temperate climate zones, but decreased in arid, tropical, polar, and cold zones. In contrast, 100-year floods have mostly decreased in arid/temperate zones and exhibit mixed trends in cold zones, but results are influenced by the small number of stations with long records, and highlight the need for continued updating of hazard assessments.

AB - Abstract Concepts like the 100-year flood event can be misleading if they are not updated to reflect significant changes over time. Here, we model observed annual maximum daily streamflow using a nonstationary approach to provide the first global picture of changes in: (a) the magnitudes of the 20-, 50-, and 100-year floods (i.e., flows of a given exceedance probability in each year); (b) the return periods of the 20-, 50-, and 100-year floods, as assessed in 1970 (i.e., flows of a fixed magnitude); and (c) corresponding flood probabilities. Empirically, we find the 20-/50-year floods have mostly increased in temperate climate zones, but decreased in arid, tropical, polar, and cold zones. In contrast, 100-year floods have mostly decreased in arid/temperate zones and exhibit mixed trends in cold zones, but results are influenced by the small number of stations with long records, and highlight the need for continued updating of hazard assessments.

KW - floods

KW - global

KW - hazard

KW - nonstationarity

KW - probabilities

KW - return periods

U2 - 10.1029/2020GL091824

DO - 10.1029/2020GL091824

M3 - Journal article

VL - 48

JO - Geophysical Research Letters

JF - Geophysical Research Letters

SN - 0094-8276

IS - 6

M1 - e2020GL091824

ER -