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Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review
Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review
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TY - JOUR
T1 - Good Practices and Common Pitfalls in Climate Time Series Changepoint Techniques
T2 - A Review
AU - Lund, Robert
AU - Beaulieu, Claudie
AU - Killick, Rebecca
AU - Lu, Qiqi
AU - Shi, Xueheng
PY - 2023/12/31
Y1 - 2023/12/31
N2 - Climate changepoint (homogenization) methods abound today, with a myriad of techniques existing in both the climate and statistics literature. Unfortunately, the appropriate changepoint technique to use remains unclear to many. Further complicating issues, changepoint conclusions are not robust to small perturbations in assumptions; for example, allowing for a trend or correlation in the series can drastically change conclusions. This paper is a review of the changepoint topic, with an emphasis on illuminating the models and techniques that allow the scientist to make reliable conclusions. Pitfalls to avoid are demonstrated via actual applications. The discourse begins by narrating the salient statistical features of most climate time series. Thereafter, single and multiple changepoint problems are considered. Several pitfalls are discussed en route and good practices are recommended. While the majority of our applications involve temperature series, other settings are mentioned.
AB - Climate changepoint (homogenization) methods abound today, with a myriad of techniques existing in both the climate and statistics literature. Unfortunately, the appropriate changepoint technique to use remains unclear to many. Further complicating issues, changepoint conclusions are not robust to small perturbations in assumptions; for example, allowing for a trend or correlation in the series can drastically change conclusions. This paper is a review of the changepoint topic, with an emphasis on illuminating the models and techniques that allow the scientist to make reliable conclusions. Pitfalls to avoid are demonstrated via actual applications. The discourse begins by narrating the salient statistical features of most climate time series. Thereafter, single and multiple changepoint problems are considered. Several pitfalls are discussed en route and good practices are recommended. While the majority of our applications involve temperature series, other settings are mentioned.
KW - stat.AP
KW - Climate
KW - Changepoint analysis
KW - Time series
U2 - 10.1175/JCLI-D-22-0954.1
DO - 10.1175/JCLI-D-22-0954.1
M3 - Journal article
VL - 36
SP - 8041
EP - 8057
JO - Journal of Climate
JF - Journal of Climate
SN - 0894-8755
IS - 23
ER -