Final published version
Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review
Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review
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TY - JOUR
T1 - Household transmission dynamics of seasonal human coronaviruses
AU - Quandelacy, Talia M
AU - Hitchings, Matt D T
AU - Lessler, Justin
AU - Read, Jonathan M
AU - Vukotich, Charles
AU - Azman, Andrew S
AU - Salje, Henrik
AU - Zimmer, Shanta
AU - Gao, Hongjiang
AU - Zheteyeva, Yenlik
AU - Uzicanin, Amra
AU - Cummings, Derek A T
PY - 2023/5/1
Y1 - 2023/5/1
N2 - Background Household transmission studies inform how viruses spread among close contacts, but few characterize household transmission of endemic coronaviruses. Methods We used data collected from 223 households with school-age children participating in weekly disease surveillance over 2 respiratory virus seasons (December 2015 to May 2017), to describe clinical characteristics of endemic human coronaviruses (HCoV-229E, HcoV-HKU1, HcoV-NL63, HcoV-OC43) infections, and community and household transmission probabilities using a chain-binomial model correcting for missing data from untested households. Results Among 947 participants in 223 households, we observed 121 infections during the study, most commonly subtype HCoV-OC43. Higher proportions of infected children (<19 years) displayed influenza-like illness symptoms than infected adults (relative risk, 3.0; 95% credible interval [CrI], 1.5–6.9). The estimated weekly household transmission probability was 9% (95% CrI, 6–13) and weekly community acquisition probability was 7% (95% CrI, 5–10). We found no evidence for differences in community or household transmission probabilities by age or symptom status. Simulations suggest that our study was underpowered to detect such differences. Conclusions Our study highlights the need for large household studies to inform household transmission, the challenges in estimating household transmission probabilities from asymptomatic individuals, and implications for controlling endemic CoVs.
AB - Background Household transmission studies inform how viruses spread among close contacts, but few characterize household transmission of endemic coronaviruses. Methods We used data collected from 223 households with school-age children participating in weekly disease surveillance over 2 respiratory virus seasons (December 2015 to May 2017), to describe clinical characteristics of endemic human coronaviruses (HCoV-229E, HcoV-HKU1, HcoV-NL63, HcoV-OC43) infections, and community and household transmission probabilities using a chain-binomial model correcting for missing data from untested households. Results Among 947 participants in 223 households, we observed 121 infections during the study, most commonly subtype HCoV-OC43. Higher proportions of infected children (<19 years) displayed influenza-like illness symptoms than infected adults (relative risk, 3.0; 95% credible interval [CrI], 1.5–6.9). The estimated weekly household transmission probability was 9% (95% CrI, 6–13) and weekly community acquisition probability was 7% (95% CrI, 5–10). We found no evidence for differences in community or household transmission probabilities by age or symptom status. Simulations suggest that our study was underpowered to detect such differences. Conclusions Our study highlights the need for large household studies to inform household transmission, the challenges in estimating household transmission probabilities from asymptomatic individuals, and implications for controlling endemic CoVs.
KW - Infectious Diseases
KW - Immunology and Allergy
U2 - 10.1093/infdis/jiac436
DO - 10.1093/infdis/jiac436
M3 - Journal article
VL - 227
SP - 1104
EP - 1112
JO - The Journal of infectious diseases
JF - The Journal of infectious diseases
SN - 0022-1899
IS - 9
ER -