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How do i know if I've improved my continental scale flood early warning system?

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How do i know if I've improved my continental scale flood early warning system? / Cloke, Hannah L.; Pappenberger, Florian; Smith, Paul J. et al.
In: Environmental Research Letters, Vol. 12, No. 4, 044006, 28.03.2017.

Research output: Contribution to Journal/MagazineJournal articlepeer-review

Harvard

Cloke, HL, Pappenberger, F, Smith, PJ & Wetterhall, F 2017, 'How do i know if I've improved my continental scale flood early warning system?', Environmental Research Letters, vol. 12, no. 4, 044006. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aa625a

APA

Cloke, H. L., Pappenberger, F., Smith, P. J., & Wetterhall, F. (2017). How do i know if I've improved my continental scale flood early warning system? Environmental Research Letters, 12(4), Article 044006. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aa625a

Vancouver

Cloke HL, Pappenberger F, Smith PJ, Wetterhall F. How do i know if I've improved my continental scale flood early warning system? Environmental Research Letters. 2017 Mar 28;12(4):044006. doi: 10.1088/1748-9326/aa625a

Author

Cloke, Hannah L. ; Pappenberger, Florian ; Smith, Paul J. et al. / How do i know if I've improved my continental scale flood early warning system?. In: Environmental Research Letters. 2017 ; Vol. 12, No. 4.

Bibtex

@article{691d0418225b40b09370e865ed94aab4,
title = "How do i know if I've improved my continental scale flood early warning system?",
abstract = "Flood early warning systems mitigate damages and loss of life and are an economically efficient way of enhancing disaster resilience. The use of continental scale flood early warning systems is rapidly growing. The European Flood Awareness System (EFAS) is a pan-European flood early warning system forced by a multi-model ensemble of numerical weather predictions. Responses to scientific and technical changes can be complex in these computationally expensive continental scale systems, and improvements need to be tested by evaluating runs of the whole system. It is demonstrated here that forecast skill is not correlated with the value of warnings. In order to tell if the system has been improved an evaluation strategy is required that considers both forecast skill and warning value. The combination of a multi-forcing ensemble of EFAS flood forecasts is evaluated with a new skill-value strategy. The full multi-forcing ensemble is recommended for operational forecasting, but, there are spatial variations in the optimal forecast combination. Results indicate that optimizing forecasts based on value rather than skill alters the optimal forcing combination and the forecast performance. Also indicated is that model diversity and ensemble size are both important in achieving best overall performance. The use of several evaluation measures that consider both skill and value is strongly recommended when considering improvements to early warning systems.",
keywords = "Copernicus, european flood awareness system, flood early warning systems, flood resilience, forecast skill, monetary value, multi-forcing ensemble",
author = "Cloke, {Hannah L.} and Florian Pappenberger and Smith, {Paul J.} and Fredrik Wetterhall",
year = "2017",
month = mar,
day = "28",
doi = "10.1088/1748-9326/aa625a",
language = "English",
volume = "12",
journal = "Environmental Research Letters",
issn = "1748-9318",
publisher = "IOP Publishing Ltd",
number = "4",

}

RIS

TY - JOUR

T1 - How do i know if I've improved my continental scale flood early warning system?

AU - Cloke, Hannah L.

AU - Pappenberger, Florian

AU - Smith, Paul J.

AU - Wetterhall, Fredrik

PY - 2017/3/28

Y1 - 2017/3/28

N2 - Flood early warning systems mitigate damages and loss of life and are an economically efficient way of enhancing disaster resilience. The use of continental scale flood early warning systems is rapidly growing. The European Flood Awareness System (EFAS) is a pan-European flood early warning system forced by a multi-model ensemble of numerical weather predictions. Responses to scientific and technical changes can be complex in these computationally expensive continental scale systems, and improvements need to be tested by evaluating runs of the whole system. It is demonstrated here that forecast skill is not correlated with the value of warnings. In order to tell if the system has been improved an evaluation strategy is required that considers both forecast skill and warning value. The combination of a multi-forcing ensemble of EFAS flood forecasts is evaluated with a new skill-value strategy. The full multi-forcing ensemble is recommended for operational forecasting, but, there are spatial variations in the optimal forecast combination. Results indicate that optimizing forecasts based on value rather than skill alters the optimal forcing combination and the forecast performance. Also indicated is that model diversity and ensemble size are both important in achieving best overall performance. The use of several evaluation measures that consider both skill and value is strongly recommended when considering improvements to early warning systems.

AB - Flood early warning systems mitigate damages and loss of life and are an economically efficient way of enhancing disaster resilience. The use of continental scale flood early warning systems is rapidly growing. The European Flood Awareness System (EFAS) is a pan-European flood early warning system forced by a multi-model ensemble of numerical weather predictions. Responses to scientific and technical changes can be complex in these computationally expensive continental scale systems, and improvements need to be tested by evaluating runs of the whole system. It is demonstrated here that forecast skill is not correlated with the value of warnings. In order to tell if the system has been improved an evaluation strategy is required that considers both forecast skill and warning value. The combination of a multi-forcing ensemble of EFAS flood forecasts is evaluated with a new skill-value strategy. The full multi-forcing ensemble is recommended for operational forecasting, but, there are spatial variations in the optimal forecast combination. Results indicate that optimizing forecasts based on value rather than skill alters the optimal forcing combination and the forecast performance. Also indicated is that model diversity and ensemble size are both important in achieving best overall performance. The use of several evaluation measures that consider both skill and value is strongly recommended when considering improvements to early warning systems.

KW - Copernicus

KW - european flood awareness system

KW - flood early warning systems

KW - flood resilience

KW - forecast skill

KW - monetary value

KW - multi-forcing ensemble

U2 - 10.1088/1748-9326/aa625a

DO - 10.1088/1748-9326/aa625a

M3 - Journal article

AN - SCOPUS:85018506352

VL - 12

JO - Environmental Research Letters

JF - Environmental Research Letters

SN - 1748-9318

IS - 4

M1 - 044006

ER -