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Identifying Plasmodium falciparum transmission patterns through parasite prevalence and entomological inoculation rate

Research output: Contribution to journalJournal articlepeer-review

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  • Benjamin Amoah
  • Robert S. McCann
  • Alinune N. Kabaghe
  • Monicah M Mburu
  • Michael G. Chipeta
  • Paula Moraga
  • Steven Gowelo
  • T. Tizifa
  • Henk van den Berg
  • Themba Mzilahowa
  • Willem Takken
  • Michèle van Vugt
  • Kamija S. Phiri
  • Peter Diggle
  • Dianne J. Terlouw
  • Emanuele Giorgi
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Article numbere65682
<mark>Journal publication date</mark>21/10/2021
<mark>Journal</mark>eLife
Volume2021
Number of pages32
Publication StatusPublished
<mark>Original language</mark>English

Abstract

Background: Monitoring malaria transmission is a critical component of efforts to achieve targets for elimination and eradication. Two commonly monitored metrics of transmission intensity are parasite prevalence (PR) and the entomological inoculation rate (EIR). Comparing the spatial and temporal variations in the PR and EIR of a given geographical region and modelling the relationship between the two metrics may provide a fuller picture of the malaria epidemiology of the region to inform control activities.

Methods: Using geostatistical methods, we compare the spatial and temporal patterns of Plasmodium falciparum EIR and PR using data collected over 38 months in a rural area of Malawi.
We then quantify the relationship between EIR and PR by using empirical and mechanistic statistical models.

Results: Hotspots identified through the EIR and PR partly overlapped during high transmission seasons but not during low transmission seasons. The estimated relationship showed a 1-month delayed effect of EIR on PR such that at lower levels of EIR, increases in EIR are associated with rapid rise in PR, whereas at higher levels of EIR, changes in EIR do not translate into notable changes in PR.

Conclusions: Our study emphasises the need for integrated malaria control strategies that combine vector and human host managements monitored by both entomological and parasitaemia indices.