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  • 2021Gallstone_seasonal_variation

    Rights statement: This is the author’s version of a work that was accepted for publication in HPB. Changes resulting from the publishing process, such as peer review, editing, corrections, structural formatting, and other quality control mechanisms may not be reflected in this document. Changes may have been made to this work since it was submitted for publication. A definitive version was subsequently published in HPB, 23, 11, 2021 DOI: 10.1016/j.hpb.2021.04.009

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Is there seasonal variation in gallstone related admissions in England?

Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review

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Is there seasonal variation in gallstone related admissions in England? / Taib, Adnan; Killick, Rebecca; Hussain, Kamran et al.
In: HPB, Vol. 23, No. 11, 30.11.2021, p. 1732-1743.

Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review

Harvard

Taib, A, Killick, R, Hussain, K, Patel, H & Obeidallah, MR 2021, 'Is there seasonal variation in gallstone related admissions in England?', HPB, vol. 23, no. 11, pp. 1732-1743. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.hpb.2021.04.009

APA

Taib, A., Killick, R., Hussain, K., Patel, H., & Obeidallah, M. R. (2021). Is there seasonal variation in gallstone related admissions in England? HPB, 23(11), 1732-1743. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.hpb.2021.04.009

Vancouver

Taib A, Killick R, Hussain K, Patel H, Obeidallah MR. Is there seasonal variation in gallstone related admissions in England? HPB. 2021 Nov 30;23(11):1732-1743. Epub 2021 Apr 27. doi: 10.1016/j.hpb.2021.04.009

Author

Taib, Adnan ; Killick, Rebecca ; Hussain, Kamran et al. / Is there seasonal variation in gallstone related admissions in England?. In: HPB. 2021 ; Vol. 23, No. 11. pp. 1732-1743.

Bibtex

@article{8fdc5011bdae46cf84d0cdca225b2477,
title = "Is there seasonal variation in gallstone related admissions in England?",
abstract = "Background Gallstone related pathology (GRP) accounts for a significant proportion of general surgery admissions. The aim of this study is to investigate if seasonal variation for GRP admissions exist in England allowing improved resource allocation and planning. Methods This multicentre retrospective cohort study included only emergency adult (≥18 years old) admissions to acute secondary care with ICD-10 codes associated with gallstones between 01/01/2010 to 31/12/2019 in England using Hospital Episode Statistics data. Seasons were defined according to United Kingdom Met Office. Results A total of 396 879 GRP related admissions were recorded during the specified period, accounting for 1.44% of all emergency admissions. Our study suggests a significant seasonal peak in Summer (n=102 620) based cumulative admissions per season and a linear regression model (p<0.001), followed by Autumn (n=102 267), then Spring (n=97 807) and finally Winter (n=94 185). Spectral analysis confirmed there is seasonality in the emergency GRP admissions every 12 months. A forecasting model was shown to be reliable; all observed admissions for 2019 were within the 95% prediction intervals for each month for the proportion of emergency GRP admissions. Discussion Resource allocation towards the Summer months to target seasonal peaks in GRP should be considered.",
keywords = "Gallstone, Public Health, Resource Planning, laparoscopic cholecystectomy, Seasonal",
author = "Adnan Taib and Rebecca Killick and Kamran Hussain and Harun Patel and Obeidallah, {Mohd Rami}",
note = "This is the author{\textquoteright}s version of a work that was accepted for publication in HPB. Changes resulting from the publishing process, such as peer review, editing, corrections, structural formatting, and other quality control mechanisms may not be reflected in this document. Changes may have been made to this work since it was submitted for publication. A definitive version was subsequently published in HPB, 23, 11, 2021 DOI: 10.1016/j.hpb.2021.04.009",
year = "2021",
month = nov,
day = "30",
doi = "10.1016/j.hpb.2021.04.009",
language = "English",
volume = "23",
pages = "1732--1743",
journal = "HPB",
issn = "1365-182X",
publisher = "Elsevier",
number = "11",

}

RIS

TY - JOUR

T1 - Is there seasonal variation in gallstone related admissions in England?

AU - Taib, Adnan

AU - Killick, Rebecca

AU - Hussain, Kamran

AU - Patel, Harun

AU - Obeidallah, Mohd Rami

N1 - This is the author’s version of a work that was accepted for publication in HPB. Changes resulting from the publishing process, such as peer review, editing, corrections, structural formatting, and other quality control mechanisms may not be reflected in this document. Changes may have been made to this work since it was submitted for publication. A definitive version was subsequently published in HPB, 23, 11, 2021 DOI: 10.1016/j.hpb.2021.04.009

PY - 2021/11/30

Y1 - 2021/11/30

N2 - Background Gallstone related pathology (GRP) accounts for a significant proportion of general surgery admissions. The aim of this study is to investigate if seasonal variation for GRP admissions exist in England allowing improved resource allocation and planning. Methods This multicentre retrospective cohort study included only emergency adult (≥18 years old) admissions to acute secondary care with ICD-10 codes associated with gallstones between 01/01/2010 to 31/12/2019 in England using Hospital Episode Statistics data. Seasons were defined according to United Kingdom Met Office. Results A total of 396 879 GRP related admissions were recorded during the specified period, accounting for 1.44% of all emergency admissions. Our study suggests a significant seasonal peak in Summer (n=102 620) based cumulative admissions per season and a linear regression model (p<0.001), followed by Autumn (n=102 267), then Spring (n=97 807) and finally Winter (n=94 185). Spectral analysis confirmed there is seasonality in the emergency GRP admissions every 12 months. A forecasting model was shown to be reliable; all observed admissions for 2019 were within the 95% prediction intervals for each month for the proportion of emergency GRP admissions. Discussion Resource allocation towards the Summer months to target seasonal peaks in GRP should be considered.

AB - Background Gallstone related pathology (GRP) accounts for a significant proportion of general surgery admissions. The aim of this study is to investigate if seasonal variation for GRP admissions exist in England allowing improved resource allocation and planning. Methods This multicentre retrospective cohort study included only emergency adult (≥18 years old) admissions to acute secondary care with ICD-10 codes associated with gallstones between 01/01/2010 to 31/12/2019 in England using Hospital Episode Statistics data. Seasons were defined according to United Kingdom Met Office. Results A total of 396 879 GRP related admissions were recorded during the specified period, accounting for 1.44% of all emergency admissions. Our study suggests a significant seasonal peak in Summer (n=102 620) based cumulative admissions per season and a linear regression model (p<0.001), followed by Autumn (n=102 267), then Spring (n=97 807) and finally Winter (n=94 185). Spectral analysis confirmed there is seasonality in the emergency GRP admissions every 12 months. A forecasting model was shown to be reliable; all observed admissions for 2019 were within the 95% prediction intervals for each month for the proportion of emergency GRP admissions. Discussion Resource allocation towards the Summer months to target seasonal peaks in GRP should be considered.

KW - Gallstone

KW - Public Health

KW - Resource Planning

KW - laparoscopic cholecystectomy

KW - Seasonal

U2 - 10.1016/j.hpb.2021.04.009

DO - 10.1016/j.hpb.2021.04.009

M3 - Journal article

VL - 23

SP - 1732

EP - 1743

JO - HPB

JF - HPB

SN - 1365-182X

IS - 11

ER -