Accepted author manuscript, 1.39 MB, PDF document
Available under license: CC BY: Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License
Final published version
Licence: CC BY: Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License
Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review
Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review
}
TY - JOUR
T1 - Joint modelling of the body and tail of bivariate data
AU - André, Lídia
AU - Wadsworth, Jennifer
AU - O'Hagan, Adrian
PY - 2024/1/31
Y1 - 2024/1/31
N2 - In situations where both extreme and non-extreme data are of interest, modelling the whole data set accurately is important. In a univariate framework, modelling the bulk and tail of a distribution has been extensively studied before. However, when more than one variable is of concern, models that aim specifically at capturing both regions correctly are scarce in the literature. A dependence model that blends two copulas with different characteristics over the whole range of the data support is proposed. One copula is tailored to the bulk and the other to the tail, with a dynamic weighting function employed to transition smoothly between them. Tail dependence properties are investigated numerically and simulation is used to confirm that the blended model is sufficiently flexible to capture a wide variety of structures. The model is applied to study the dependence between temperature and ozone concentration at two sites in the UK and compared with a single copula fit. The proposed model provides a better, more flexible, fit to the data, and is also capable of capturing complex dependence structures.
AB - In situations where both extreme and non-extreme data are of interest, modelling the whole data set accurately is important. In a univariate framework, modelling the bulk and tail of a distribution has been extensively studied before. However, when more than one variable is of concern, models that aim specifically at capturing both regions correctly are scarce in the literature. A dependence model that blends two copulas with different characteristics over the whole range of the data support is proposed. One copula is tailored to the bulk and the other to the tail, with a dynamic weighting function employed to transition smoothly between them. Tail dependence properties are investigated numerically and simulation is used to confirm that the blended model is sufficiently flexible to capture a wide variety of structures. The model is applied to study the dependence between temperature and ozone concentration at two sites in the UK and compared with a single copula fit. The proposed model provides a better, more flexible, fit to the data, and is also capable of capturing complex dependence structures.
KW - Copulas
KW - Dependence
KW - Extremal dependence
U2 - 10.1016/j.csda.2023.107841
DO - 10.1016/j.csda.2023.107841
M3 - Journal article
VL - 189
SP - 107841
JO - Computational Statistics and Data Analysis
JF - Computational Statistics and Data Analysis
SN - 0167-9473
M1 - 107841
ER -