Rights statement: This document is the Accepted Manuscript version of a Published Work that appeared in final form in Environmental Science & Technology, copyright © 2017 American Chemical Society after peer review and technical editing by the publisher. To access the final edited and published work see http://pubs.acs.org/doi/abs/10.1021/acs.est.6b05341
Accepted author manuscript, 309 KB, PDF document
Available under license: CC BY-NC: Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License
Final published version
Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review
| <mark>Journal publication date</mark> | 7/03/2017 |
|---|---|
| <mark>Journal</mark> | Environmental Science and Technology |
| Issue number | 5 |
| Volume | 51 |
| Number of pages | 8 |
| Pages (from-to) | 2838-2845 |
| Publication Status | Published |
| Early online date | 27/01/17 |
| <mark>Original language</mark> | English |
Polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) are industrial organic contaminants identified as persistent, bioaccumulative, toxic (PBT) and subject to long-range transport (LRT) with global scale significance. This study focuses on a reconstruction and prediction for China of long-term emission trends of intentionally and unintentionally produced (UP) ∑7PCBs (UP-PCBs, from the manufacture of steel, cement and sinter iron) and their re-emissions from secondary sources (e.g., soils and vegetation), using a dynamic fate model (BETR-Global). Contemporary emission estimates combined with predictions from the multimedia fate model suggest that primary sources still dominate, although unintentional sources are predicted to become a main contributor from 2035 for PCB-28. Imported e-waste is predicted to play an increasing role until 2020-2030 on a national scale due to the decline of IP emissions. Hypothetical emission scenarios suggest that China could become a potential source to neighbouring regions with a net output of ~0.4 t year-1 in the case of 7 PCBs around 2050. However, future emission scenarios and hence model results will be dictated by the efficiency of control measures.