Rights statement: This document is the Accepted Manuscript version of a Published Work that appeared in final form in Environmental Science & Technology, copyright © 2017 American Chemical Society after peer review and technical editing by the publisher. To access the final edited and published work see http://pubs.acs.org/doi/abs/10.1021/acs.est.6b05341
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Final published version
Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review
Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review
}
TY - JOUR
T1 - Long-term temporal trends of PCBs and their controlling sources in China
AU - Zhao, Shizhen
AU - Breivik, Knut
AU - Liu, Guorui
AU - Zheng, Minghui
AU - Jones, Kevin C.
AU - Sweetman, Andrew J.
N1 - This document is the Accepted Manuscript version of a Published Work that appeared in final form in Environmental Science & Technology, copyright © 2017 American Chemical Society after peer review and technical editing by the publisher. To access the final edited and published work see http://pubs.acs.org/doi/abs/10.1021/acs.est.6b05341
PY - 2017/3/7
Y1 - 2017/3/7
N2 - Polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) are industrial organic contaminants identified as persistent, bioaccumulative, toxic (PBT) and subject to long-range transport (LRT) with global scale significance. This study focuses on a reconstruction and prediction for China of long-term emission trends of intentionally and unintentionally produced (UP) ∑7PCBs (UP-PCBs, from the manufacture of steel, cement and sinter iron) and their re-emissions from secondary sources (e.g., soils and vegetation), using a dynamic fate model (BETR-Global). Contemporary emission estimates combined with predictions from the multimedia fate model suggest that primary sources still dominate, although unintentional sources are predicted to become a main contributor from 2035 for PCB-28. Imported e-waste is predicted to play an increasing role until 2020-2030 on a national scale due to the decline of IP emissions. Hypothetical emission scenarios suggest that China could become a potential source to neighbouring regions with a net output of ~0.4 t year-1 in the case of 7 PCBs around 2050. However, future emission scenarios and hence model results will be dictated by the efficiency of control measures.
AB - Polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) are industrial organic contaminants identified as persistent, bioaccumulative, toxic (PBT) and subject to long-range transport (LRT) with global scale significance. This study focuses on a reconstruction and prediction for China of long-term emission trends of intentionally and unintentionally produced (UP) ∑7PCBs (UP-PCBs, from the manufacture of steel, cement and sinter iron) and their re-emissions from secondary sources (e.g., soils and vegetation), using a dynamic fate model (BETR-Global). Contemporary emission estimates combined with predictions from the multimedia fate model suggest that primary sources still dominate, although unintentional sources are predicted to become a main contributor from 2035 for PCB-28. Imported e-waste is predicted to play an increasing role until 2020-2030 on a national scale due to the decline of IP emissions. Hypothetical emission scenarios suggest that China could become a potential source to neighbouring regions with a net output of ~0.4 t year-1 in the case of 7 PCBs around 2050. However, future emission scenarios and hence model results will be dictated by the efficiency of control measures.
U2 - 10.1021/acs.est.6b05341
DO - 10.1021/acs.est.6b05341
M3 - Journal article
C2 - 28128546
VL - 51
SP - 2838
EP - 2845
JO - Environmental Science and Technology
JF - Environmental Science and Technology
SN - 0013-936X
IS - 5
ER -